2024 News
Japan's Prognosis no match for Via Sistina in Cox Plate
Prognosis
Prognosis
Prognosis
Prognosis failed to meet expectations as the Group 1 W. S. Cox Plate field favorite Saturday and was unable to match the performance of Japan’s last favorite in the race - Lys Gracieux, who won in 2019. Nonetheless, Prognosis did save face in second place, though he came up a full 8 lengths short of the mouth-dropping, record-setting performance by 6-year-old mare Via Sistina. It was a performance even more stupendous considering she had dumped her rider earlier in the week and circled the track three times on her own. On Saturday, Oct. 26, running under 57 kg (2 kg lighter than Prognosis), with James McDonald up, there was no stopping the Irish-bred daughter of Fastnet Rock. Via Sistina smashed the record set by superstar Winx in 2017 by nearly 2 seconds with a time of 2 minutes 1.07 seconds over the Moonee Valley 2,040 meters of turf rated a “Good 3.” Broadsiding, a 3-year-old Too Darn Hot colt ridden by Jamie Kah and racing under only 49.5 kg, finished in third place 2 lengths behind Prognosis. Under way shortly after 5 p.m. (local time) Saturday, the field of nine was led by Royal Patronage on the inside, with the No. 2 pick Pride of Jenni two out and quickly moving to the top of the field by the first bend. Prognosis shadowed the leader on her inside, then as the field strung out, moved to her outside as she began to drop back on the rail and eventually finish only one of the rear. Meanwhile, the race fourth pick Via Sistina was looking like a runaway locomotive moving up on the outside. And, with an incredible burst of speed, she gained the front before the field straightened into the stretch and, from there, the race was a one-horse affair. Prognosis, a son of Deep Impact and a highly consistent runner and winner of three G2s in Japan, has yet to land a top-level competition. He’s come very close. In Grade 1 events and adding his Cox Plate result, Prognosis now has third seconds (two in back-to-back QE2s in Hong Kong, one third (last year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn)) and a fifth in the Hong Kong Cup last year. “There’s always another horse in front of him,” said trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida. “There was Romantic Warrior (in both the 2023 and 2024 QE2), and this time Via Sistina.” "It's too bad he couldn’t live up to his billing as the favorite,” the Ritto-based trainer said, “but he was able to secure second place. I think the gate practice under Damian Lane that he’d been getting since we arrived in Australia really helped. “He broke very nicely and he was able to race from a much more forward position than I had imagined he would. “I think things unfolded ideally for him. He quickened as he usually does and he held off the others solidly. I think the winner was simply a lot stronger than we’d thought.” Lane, who had ridden Lys Gracieux in the 2019 Cox Plate, agreed that the winner this year was something of a monster. Prognosis, he said, “started very nicely and got a position closer to the front than I’d imagined he would. “Under way he raced at a very nice rhythm and gave it everything he had. “But, the horse that won today was just too strong. When she came up on our outside heading into the straight there was no way we could keep up.” Nakauchida indicated that Prognosis would not likely be sticking around to participate in the Victoria Racing Club’s Champion Stakes, a Group 1 over 2,000 meters at Flemington and held this year on Nov. 9, the last day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival. “I wouldn’t think so. I’m sure he’s tired. He had a hard race,” Nakauchida said. “He’s spent one month here already preparing for this race to be 100 percent. We didn’t come here for 70 percent or 80 percent, we came here for 100 percent.” # # # The 6-year-old Prognosis was only the fourth horse from Japan to take part in the Cox Plate since Japan’s first hopeful Tosen Dandy participated in 2005. In addition to Lys Gracieux, Kluger also ran in 2019. Prognosis’s second place was the second-best result for Japan in the race. Please visit the following website for more information.
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