NHK Mile Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Three-year old mile champion decider that often delivers unexpected results
In last year’s NHK Mile Cup, Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes winner Jantar Mantar triumphed, while Hanshin Juvenile Fillies winner Ascoli Piceno finished 2nd, leaving the Top 2 occupied by two runners who had already won a G1 race for two-year-olds. The outcome was in line with expectations, so the Trifecta payout came to 8,520 yen. However, other years have ended in upsets, such as the 2022 race that triggered a notable Trifecta payout of 1.5 million yen. Let’s now analyze the results over the last 10 years to find a winning strategy.

Strong performance by runners backed as 2nd favorite
Runners backed as 2nd favorite delivered four winners, including Jantar Mantar, achieving a Top 3 ratio of 70.0%. Although race favorites achieved a somewhat low Top 3 ratio of 40.0%, over the last 10 years, there has not been a single instance where all runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher were beaten to 4th or lower. At the same time, however, runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have also finished in the Top 3 in the nine consecutive years since 2016, with several such runners concurrently placing in the Top 3 on five different occasions. Runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have also made it into the Top 3 in some years, so if anything, we should regard last year’s outcome—where highly favored runners prevailed—as an outlier. [Table 1]

Runners coming from Classic races fare well
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners coming from the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) or the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) achieved high Top 3 ratios. Among runners coming from the Satsuki Sho or the Oka Sho, those backed as 3rd favorite or higher achieved performance of [5-3-0-2], resulting in a Top 2 ratio of 80%. Among the Top 3 finishers, six came from the Arlington Cup (renamed Churchill Downs Cup [NHK Mile Cup Trial] this year) and another six from the New Zealand Trophy (NHK Mile Cup Trial), and nine of these 12 Top 3 finishers were backed as 6th or lower. [Table 2]

Discount runners that have finished either 1st or 6th or lower in their previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in their previous race, we find that runners that had finished 1st in their previous race struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 7.1%. Furthermore, among runners that were beaten to 4th or lower in the NHK Mile Cup, eight were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. We should therefore not expect too much from runners coming to this race after notching the win in their previous race, even if they attract our attention. In addition, runners that had been beaten to 6th or lower in their previous race similarly struggled with a lackluster Top 3 ratio of 6.5%. This suggests we should discount runners that have been beaten to 6th or lower in the previous race, even if that race was the Satsuki Sho or Oka Sho. [Table 3]

Watch runners with G1 experience
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 17 had already contested a JRA G1 race. Within this group, runners with experience of finishing in the Top 5 of a 1,600m turf G1 race delivered performance of [7-2-2-21], and their Top 3 ratio stood at 34.4%. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check performance by bracket number and as a two-year-old
Runners starting in Brackets 6-8 have consistently dominated the race since 2017, so we should first focus on runners starting in the outer brackets. Furthermore, all eight winners had won their debut race, and also contested their second race as a two-year-old. In addition, the seven winners since 2018 had all either finished 1st in their second race or finished in the Top 3 of a graded race, so we should look out for horses that began to shine early in their careers. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)