Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1) - Data Analysis

Race that crowns the middle-distance champion, renowned for its distinguished lineage of past winners
Starting from Almond Eye in 2020 to Do Deuce in 2024, the last five winners of the Tenno Sho (Autumn) have consistently dominated either the Japan Cup or the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) in their next race and won the same-year JRA Award for Horse of the Year. Moreover, among the last 10 winners, Equinox was the only runner to claim his first G1 win in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) in 2022, underscoring the elite status of the race. Let’s now identify some other characteristics of the race based on results over the last 10 years.

Room for dark horses to capture the 2nd and 3rd places
In the last 10 years, race favorites have secured the victory seven times, with the remaining three wins going to runners backed as 2nd or 3rd favorite. That said, runners backed as 6th or lower have also turned in many solid performances, producing five 2nd-place and six 3rd-place finishers. In last year’s race, the 2nd and 3rd place were captured by runners backed as 9th and 8th favorite, respectively, resulting in a Trifecta payout that approached 400,000 yen. In other words, even with highly favored runners as the main focus, it may be wise to consider a broad range of contenders. [Table 1]

Strong performance by runners coming from JRA G1 races
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 18 had contested a JRA G1 race in their previous race. Moreover, runners in this group have produced the winner for six straight years, from Almond Eye in 2019 to Do Deuce in 2024, and those backed as 3rd favorite or higher delivered performance of [7-3-2-2], with a Top 3 ratio exceeding 80%. Conversely, three of the five runners that had previously contested an overseas G1 race and were backed as 2nd favorite or higher have finished consistently in 5th place or lower, a disappointing outcome. [Table 2]

Horses with numbers 10 and above struggle
Looking into performances by horse number over the last 10 years, we find that 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers entered the race with the numbers 1-9. Horses with the numbers 10-18 produced zero winners and achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 8.5%. This suggests we should focus on horses with the numbers 1-9. [Table 3].

Clash between 3-year-olds and 5-year-olds
All Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years were aged 5 or below, so it seems appropriate to lower our expectations of runners aged 6 or above. Meanwhile, Efforia’s triumph in 2021 marked the first victory by a 3-year-old in 19 years, and 3-year-old Equinox continued that momentum by notching the win in 2022. We should therefore also keep in mind that 3-year-olds have proven competitive in the race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check track record in 2,400m turf G1 races at Tokyo Racecourse
Among the last 10 winners, 3-year-old winner Equinox was the only runner to dominate the race without a previous G1 win (2022), but he had finished 2nd in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). The eight winners since 2017, including Equinox, all had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of a previous 2,400m turf G1 race at Tokyo Racecourse, so we should focus on runners with such a record. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)