Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Race that crowns the true queen across generations
The Queen Elizabeth II Cup brings together battle-hardened older mares and 3-year-old fillies that have thus far raced against their own age group in a clash contested on the 2,200m turf track of Kyoto Racecourse to determine the racing queen. Let’s now identify some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the period from 2020 to 2022, when the race was held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Runners backed as 3rd favorite have been standout performers
Runners backed as 3rd favorite have turned in outstanding performances over the last 10 years, achieving a notable Win ratio of 40% and a Top 3 ratio of 70%. However, a total of 10 runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have also finished in the Top 3, so we can conclude that runners with varying levels of favoritism all have a chance in this G1 race. [Table 1]

3-year-olds and 4-year-olds have the edge
Over the last 10 years, 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds have achieved the highest success ratios. In contrast, there is a noticeable decline in Top 3 ratios from age 5 onward. Even among runners with low favoritism, we find remarkable performances by 3-year-olds (Lilac finishing as runner-up in 2022 while backed as 12th favorite, and Stellaria finishing as runner-up in 2021 while backed as 7th favorite) and 4-year-olds (Ravel finishing as runner-up in 2024 while backed as 12th favorite, and Akai Ito triumphing in 2021 while backed as 10th favorite). [Table 2]

Runners starting in the outer brackets struggle
Looking at performances in the seven races held at Kyoto Racecourse over the last 10 years in terms of horse number, we note that runners with numbers 13 and above produced zero winners and only two Top 3 finishers—an underwhelming outcome. We should therefore focus on runners entering the race with horse numbers 1-12. [Table 3]

Watch runners coming from a fillies-and-mares-only race
When considering runners who competed against colts/horses in their previous race and those coming from a fillies-and-mares-only race, the former group may appear stronger, but it is actually the latter group that achieved the highest success ratios over the last 10 years. Runners that competed in a mixed-sex race in their last outing have often failed to live up to high favoritism, so some caution is warranted here. For example, race favorites Daring Tact and Lei Papale in 2022 and 2021 both finished 6th. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on runners that have contested a G2 or higher race in their previous race with a Top 3 finish
Nine of the last 10 winners had contested a G1 or G2 race in their previous race, with seven finishing in the Top 3 of that race. While the race appears wide open, many of its winners have come off strong performances in high-grade races. Finally, we should add that eight of the last 10 winners were ridden by non-Japanese jockeys. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)