Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Mile champion decider for two-year-olds that brings together potential stars of next year
After finishing as runner-up in the 2024 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, Museum Mile won the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) of the following year. Similarly, 2023 winner Jantar Mantar triumphed in the NHK Mile Cup of the following year, while 2021 winner Do Deuce secured the victory in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) of the following year. In other words, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes is not only the defining race for 2-year-olds, but also an important race for gauging potential G1 performance by 3-year-olds in the following spring season. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2024 race held at Kyoto Racecourse.

Runners backed as 2nd favorite or higher enjoy success
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 15 of the 20 runners backed as 2nd favorite or higher finished in the Top 3. This suggests that highly favored runners are likely to finish in the Top 3. [Table 1]

Runners with 2 career starts often fare well
Looking at performances by total career starts over the last 10 years, we observe that all 30 Top 3 finishers had 4 or fewer career starts. In addition, runners with 2 career starts produced the highest numbers of winners, Top 2 finishers, and Top 3 finishers. In other words, we should focus our attention on runners with around 2 career starts. [Table 2]

Watch runners starting in brackets 1-5
Looking at performances by runners in the races held at Hanshin Racecourse (2015-2023) in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in brackets 1-5 accounted for 21 of the 27 Top 3 finishers. This suggests we should raise our expectations of runners starting in the inner to middle brackets. [Table 3]

Distance of previous race is decisive factor
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the distance of their previous race, we find that runners that had contested a 1,600m or longer turf race in their previous race accounted for 23 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. In addition, if we limit our analysis to the four years since 2021, runners that had contested a turf race below 1,600m delivered performance of [0-0-1-23] (Top 3 ratio of 4.2%), those that had contested a turf race of 1,600m performance of [3-2-2-20] (Top 3 ratio of 25.9%), and those that had contested a turf race over 1,600m performance of [1-2-1-7] (Top 3 ratio of 36.4%). Based on trends in recent years, therefore, our focus should be on runners whose previous race was run over the same distance as, or a longer distance than, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Bracket number and the details of the previous race are key factors
The winners of the seven races held at Hanshin Racecourse since 2017 (2017-2023), all started the race in brackets 1-5, and had all been positioned 2nd or 3rd when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. We should therefore first narrow down our selection by bracket position and performance in the previous race. Other shared features among the seven winners were that they had finished 1st in their previous race, and that they had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race. Incidentally, Admire Zoom, who won the 2024 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes held at Kyoto Racecourse, also started in bracket 1, had been positioned 2nd when passing the 4th corner in his previous race, had finished 1st in his previous race, and had been backed as 2nd favorite in his previous race. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)