NHK Mile Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Notable performances by less-fancied runners
Over the last 10 years, runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have produced four winners and 16 Top 3 finishers, pointing to notable performances by less-fancied runners. Runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have also placed in the Top 3 every year. In particular, runners that finished 2nd to 5th in a graded race last time out have often performed well, which is worth bearing in mind. [Table 1]

Runners starting in the outer brackets fare well
Over the last 10 years, runners starting in Brackets 1 to 4 have had low success ratios with performance of [1-4-5-70], corresponding to a Win ratio of 1.3% and a Top 2 ratio of 6.3%. Meanwhile, runners starting in Brackets 5 to 8, have delivered performance of [9-6-5-79], translating into a Win ratio of 9.1% and a Top 2 ratio of 15.2%. In particular, runners starting in Brackets 6 to 8 have performed exceptionally well, producing four winners each. Although the 1,600m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse is generally regarded as a course where the starting bracket is not a major factor, performance in the NHK Mile Cup shows clear differences by bracket number. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from the Oka Sho or the Satsuki Sho
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that many runners came from the New Zealand Trophy (NHK Mile Cup Trial) or the Churchill Downs Cup (NHK Mile Cup Trial). However, the runners with high success ratios were those redirected here from the classic races (the Oka Sho [Japanese 1000 Guineas] or the Satsuki Sho [Japanese 2000 Guineas]). In particular, runners that had finished in the Top 5 of the Oka Sho or the Satsuki Sho delivered excellent performance of [4-2-0-3]. [Table 3]

Runners narrowly beaten last time out bounce back
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish and time difference with the winner in their previous race, we find that runners that had won their previous race struggled with a Top 3 ratio of just 5.3%. Runners that achieved strong results were those that had been narrowly beaten in their previous race with a time difference of 0.4 seconds or less from the winner. Runners that had been beaten by 0.5 seconds or more also performed poorly, so we should select the main contenders from among runners that finished 2nd or lower last time out with a time difference of 0.4 seconds or less from the winner. [Table 4]

Check performance in the debut and second race
The last 10 winners had all secured a victory in their debut race. In addition, seven of the 10 winners had won their second race. It is worth noting that runners with this profile have produced the winner in each of the last five years. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)