Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) - Data Analysis

Winners have been backed as 4th favorite or higher
The last 10 winners were all backed as 4th favorite or higher. Within this group, runners backed as 1st favorite produced the highest number of winners (six). In terms of Top 3 ratios, runners backed as 2nd favorite led the way at 80.0%, while those backed as 1st and 2nd favorite outperformed all other runners. However, runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have also delivered a total of six 2nd- and 3rd-place finishers, making it advisable to consider a broad range of accompanying picks. [Table 1]

Runners starting in Bracket 7 have the most wins
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in Bracket 1 recorded the highest Top 3 ratio, but with only one winner and four runners-up, it is worth keeping in mind that they have often fallen just short. In addition, runners starting in Bracket 7 have produced the highest number of winners (three), including last year’s winner Kamunyak. Finally, winners have also emerged from among runners starting in Bracket 8, suggesting there is little need to be overly concerned about inside-versus-outside bracket positions. [Table 2]

Runners that finished ahead in the Oka Sho should be rated highly
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 18 came from the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), including 12 that had finished in the Top 3 of that race, so the top performers from the opening Triple Crown race should be rated highly. Runners coming from the Sankei Sports Sho Flora Stakes (Japanese Oaks Trial) produced the second-highest number of Top 3 finishers (six). While there were also strong performers among the runners coming from the Wasurenagusa Sho, the Sweet Pea Stakes, the Flower Cup, and the Yaguruma Sho, we should remember that all Top 3 finishers in this group had secured the victory in their previous race. [Table 3]

Front runners tend to struggle
Nine of the last 10 winners had been positioned 5th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. In other words, front runners have found it difficult to secure the victory, with Loves Only You (2019) the only winner to have been positioned 4th or higher when passing the 4th corner in her previous race. In particular, runners that had entered a race with a field of 14 or more runners in their previous race and had been positioned 4th or higher when passing the 4th corner in that race delivered lackluster performance of [0-0-1-37]. This suggests we should discount runners matching this profile. [Table 4]

Also check favoritism and finish in the previous race
The last 10 winners had all contested the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), the Sankei Sports Sho Flora Stakes (Japanese Oaks Trial), or the Wasurenagusa Sho in their previous race, and nine of the 10 winners had finished in the Top 3 of those races, with only Cervinia (2024) having been beaten to 4th or lower. In addition, eight of the 10 winners had been backed as 4th favorite or higher in their previous race. The remaining two were 2022 and 2025 winners Stars on Earth and Kamunyak, who had been backed as 7th favorite in the Oka Sho and Sankei Sports Sho Flora Stakes, respectively, both carrying momentum after defying low expectations to secure the victory last time out. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)