Yasuda Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

No strong performances among runners backed as 10th favorite or lower
Although race favorites have only managed to produce one winner over the last 10 years, they have achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 80%, suggesting they are reliable picks for trio combinations. Another notable statistic is the strong performance of runners backed as 4th favorites, who have achieved a Win ratio of 30% and a Top 2 ratio of 40%. Finally, the fact that runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have not recorded a Top 3 finish is also a useful trend to keep in mind. [Table 1]

4-year-olds have a slight edge, but …
This race has featured a wide range of ages over the last 10 years, with runners ranging from 3-year-olds to 8-year-olds. Among them, 4-year-olds have achieved the highest Win ratio and Top 2 ratio. That said, their performance has not been particularly outstanding either, so age does not appear to be a major factor that should be weighed heavily when making predictions. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from an overseas race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners coming from an open-class race achieved the highest Win ratio. However, with so few runners in this group, this statistic is not particularly meaningful. Among the groups with a sufficient number of runners, those coming from an overseas race have recorded the strongest Top 2 and Top 3 ratios. In the last four years, in particular, runners coming from an overseas race have finished in the Top 2 every year and swept the entire Top 3 last year. [Table 3]

For horses coming from a domestic race, check favoritism in the previous race
Since this is a G1 race in which runners often bounce back from a major defeat in their previous race, there is little need to place too much emphasis on the finishing position in the previous race. Instead, we should focus on favoritism in the previous race. Among the runners coming from a domestic race, those backed as 5th favorite or lower in that race have rarely performed well. In other words, popularity in the previous race looks like a useful indicator to significantly narrow down betting candidates. [Table 4]

Check runners with consecutive victories since their first win
Runners capable of winning a G1 race typically display signs of their potential early in their careers, and the last eight winners had all achieved their first win within their first three career starts and had then followed up with another victory in their next race. In addition, the last six winners also had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of a G1 race. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)