Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Numerous strong performances by less-fancied runners
In the last 10 races, including the 2024 race held at Kyoto Racecourse, runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher have produced a total of seven winners, so fancied runners have claimed many of the victories. However, the remaining three winners were dark horses, with two backed as 7th favorite and one as 8th favorite. In addition, runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have filled the 2nd- and 3rd-place positions on five occasions, so we should give careful consideration to less-fancied runners as well. [Table 1]

4-year-olds and 5-year-olds enjoy success
The last 10 winners were all 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds, and runners in those age groups accounted for 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. Given the underwhelming Top 3 ratios of runners aged 6 or above, we should focus on 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds when making our predictions. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from domestic or overseas G1 races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a domestic or overseas G1 race in their previous race. Within this group, nine runners came from the Tenno Sho (Spring), eight from the Osaka Hai, and six from overseas G1 races. Runners coming from domestic G2 or G3 races have not fared well. Among such runners, those that had been beaten to 3rd or lower in their previous race struggled considerably with performance of [0-0-0-29]. [Table 3]

Bracket 8 boasts the highest Win ratio, Bracket 1 the highest Top 3 ratio
Looking at performances by runners in the nine races held at Hanshin Racecourse over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we note that runners starting in Bracket 8 secured the highest number of victories (four). Meanwhile, runners starting in Bracket 1 produced zero winners but achieved the highest Top 3 ratio. While there is no clear concentration of successful runners in any one bracket, it may be worth paying attention to runners starting in Brackets 1 and 8. [Table 4]

Check recent form
Nine of the last 10 winners, excluding 2018 winner Mikki Rocket, had competed exclusively in domestic and overseas G1 or G2 races in their four previous starts, and had notched a win during that stretch. We should therefore narrow down likely win contenders based on race grade and finish in recent races. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)