Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) (G1) - Data Analysis

Many Top 2 finishers backed as 4th favorite or higher, but …
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 15 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 18 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 4th favorite or higher. However, runners backed as 6th-10th favorite also produced nine Top 3 finishers. Therefore, we should check not only the heavy favorites but also the moderately fancied runners. [Table 1]

Strong performance by runners starting in the outer brackets in recent years
Looking at the races held at Kyoto Racecourse (2016-2020, 2023-2025) in terms of bracket number, we observe that runners starting in Bracket 7 delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers (nine). Even when limiting our analysis to the three years since 2023, while runners starting in Brackets 1-6 had a record of [1-1-0-34] (Top 3 ratio of 5.6%), those starting in Bracket 7 achieved performance of [1-1-2-4] (Top 3 ratio of 50.0%) and those starting in Bracket 8 [1-1-1-6] (Top 3 ratio of 33.3%), indicating strong performance from the outer brackets. We should therefore assume there is a relatively high probability that runners starting in the outer brackets will chase the top places. [Table 2]

Many Top 3 finishers among runners coming from G2 races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of previous race, we note that 14 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 19 of the 30 Top 3 finishers came from G2 races. This suggests that horses coming from G2 races, including trials such as the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen and Kobe Shimbun Hai, are likely to be leading contenders. [Table 3]

Strong performers last time out have the edge
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that 27 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had placed in the Top 3 of their previous race. In other words, this looks like a race that generally favors runners who performed well last time out. [Table 4]

Focus on careers and lead-up races
The last 10 winners were all backed by win odds of 15.0 or lower. Other shared features among these winners were that they had 8 or fewer career starts, and that they had contested a 3-win class or higher-grade race in their previous race. We should use these trends to narrow down potential winners. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)