Data Analysis for the 2016 Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1)

The spring sprint champion decider!

Last year’s Takamatsunomiya Kinen was won by Aerovelocity, a horse from Hong Kong. Since the retirement of Lord Kanaloa, in fact, there has been no standout performer in Japanese sprint racing. So will a runner with a proven track record take this coveted title in 2016? Or will the spoils go to a fast-improving spring newcomer? Let’s now attempt some predictions, with a firm eye on warmup races and various statistics from the last 10 years.

Change of rider? - Caution required!

In the Takamatsunomiya Kinen over the last 10 years, horses ridden by “the same jockey as last time out” have recorded better success than those seeing a “change of rider”. Only two horses have finished in the top 2 with a “change of rider” – 2008 runner-up Kinshasa no Kiseki (ridden by Yasunari Iwata) and 2014 winner Copano Richard (Mirco Demuro) – but the rest have tended to struggle. [Table 1]

Favored horses dominate

Turning next to performances by win odds over the last 10 years, every winner in that time has been backed by a win odds of “less than 10”. Actually, horses with odds of “2.9 or less” have notched a top 3 ratio of 80.0%, but it seems slightly worrying that, of the five horses in question, only one – 2013 winner Lord Kanaloa (odds multiple 1.3) – has managed a top 2 finish. Meanwhile, four horses backed by odds of “10.0-19.9” have finished in the top 2, all since 2010. [Table 2]

Key step races are limited

Viewing performances in terms of the runners’ previous outing over the last 10 years, the majority of strong performers in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen had most recently appeared in the “Hankyu Hai”, “Ocean Stakes” or “Silk Road Stakes”. The only contenders finishing in the top 3 when their previous outing was a “G1” race were 2009 runner-up Sleepless Night (coming straight from the previous year’s Sprinters Stakes) and last year’s winner Aerovelocity, previously appearing in a Hong Kong local G1 race. [Table 3]

Next, if we aggregate the performances of horses previously appearing in the aforementioned three races (Hankyu Hai, Ocean Stakes and Silk Road Stakes) in terms of their favoritism in those races, we find that all the winners in this race had been backed among the top 3 favorites there. Of horses coming straight from the main warmup races, our attention should clearly be on the top favorites in those races. Incidentally, two horses backed as 10th favorite or lower have finished in the top 3 here, but both of these had finished as runner-up in the race in question. [Table 4]

Check for defeats despite favoritism in recent outings

In the Takamatsunomiya Kinen over the last 10 years, at least one horse that had been “beaten to 4th place or lower as 1st favorite” or “beaten to 7th place or lower as 2nd favorite” within its last three outings has finished in the top 2 every year. Both of last year’s top 2 fitted this bill. This year, too, it would be advisable to check favoritism and finishes in recent races. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Look for horses with strong favoritism last time out when it was their first race of the year

The last six winners of the Takamatsunomiya Kinen had all been “backed among the top 2 favorites last time out in their first race of the year”. The previous outing was a graded race in each case, and even last year’s winner, Aerovelocity from Hong Kong, had been backed as 1st favorite in a Hong Kong graded race. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)