Hopeful Stakes (G1) - Preview

Justin Vista

Anduril

Shonan Gulf

Badrinath

L'Avenue

Noche Cerrada

Ask Edinburgh

Japan Racing Association racing sees 2025 out with a triple whammy, two G1 flat races and a top-level jump race held over the weekend of Dec. 27-28 at Nakayama Racecourse.

The second of the three big races is the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, which spotlights the up-and-coming talent with a 2,000-meter test for 2-year-old colts and fillies.

This year sees 19 nominees (all colts) for the 18 berths of the Hopeful Stakes and a chance at a first-place prize of JPY70 million and a share of the total purse exceeding JPY152 million.

Last year’s Hopeful Stakes winner Croix du Nord went to the gate unbeaten from two 1,800-meter tests at Tokyo, including the Grade 2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes a month earlier. This year’s lineup, however, has no G2 winners, but does have two colts that have claimed a Grade 3 test - Shonan Gulf and Justin Vista, both of whom are likely to be among the top choices. Ivy Stakes winner Anduril and Badrinath, with two wins and a second from three starts, are also expected to figure prominently in the wagering.

The Hopeful Stakes is the only big race that gives youngsters preferring longer distances a chance to shine at the top level, and also allows a clearer picture of which horses will be more competitive in the coming year’s mixed-company 3-year-old classics. The Hopeful Stakes is a perfect steppingstone to the Grade 1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), the first and shortest of the classics, and it’s held over the same distance of 2,000 meters at Nakayama.

Although the Hopeful Stakes has existed since 1984 under a variety of names, most recently the Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes, the current moniker dates to 2014. The race was only promoted to the G1 level in 2017 and is the last of the year’s three G1 events for 2-year-olds, which are all held in December. The other two are the 1,600-meter Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, also open to both colts and fillies, and the fillies-only Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, also at a distance of 1,600 meters.

The Nakayama 2,000 meters is a very challenging race starting over the inner course at the top of the stretch. Runners soon hit the upward slope that starts from about 200 meters before the finish line, making it difficult for frontrunners and those very close to the pace. The upward grade continues until halfway around the bend into the backstretch and reaches a challenging height of five meters. After that, it’s downward going until the field hits the upslope again in the stretch.

On Saturday, the Hopeful Stakes follows the  Nakayama Daishogai jump race and is the No. 11 race of 12 on the day’s card at Nakayama. Post time is five minutes later than usual for a Grade 1, at 15:45..

Here’s a look at some of the expected popular choices.

Justin Vista: Justin Vista is two for two and one of the two Hopeful nominees to have won a graded-states event. After acing his debut at Kyoto in mid-October, Justin Vista returned six weeks later to claim the Nov. 29 Grade 3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes over 2,000 meters. In that race, he displayed dazzling late speed and topped two other Hopeful nominees, Ask Edinburgh and Winners Nine. Justin Vista is the son of Saturnalia, who won the 2018 Hopeful Stakes. He went on to win the Satsuki Sho the following year, then finished second in the Arima Kinen that same year, earning him the title of Best Three-Year-Old Colt that year. A big colt already weighing close to 520kg, Justin Vista is very limber and his footwork impressive. He will be traveling east from his Ritto base for the first time and key will be how he weathers that trip. He ranks second (behind Winners Nine) among the nominees for the top race time. And Saturday, he impressed trainer Tatsuya Yoshioka when he clocked a 10.8-second lap working on the flat. “It’s not a number you see often,” said Yoshioka. “His footwork has gotten lighter compared to his last start and he’s showing improvement.”

Anduril: With already three starts behind him and a glowing 2-1-1 record, the striking black colt Anduril (also by Saturnalia) returns from his win by a length of the listed race Ivy Stakes over 1,800 meters at Tokyo on Oct. 18. The Ivy Stakes was one of two starts racing to the left (the previous one he’d won by five lengths) and showed his versatility by running in second position as opposed to his more leisurely debut at Hanshin. There, though, he displayed his fine turn of foot that took him home in second place with a time of 32.8 seconds over the final three furlongs. Based at Ritto, neither the direction of the race nor the haul eastward look to pose problems. This will be his longest race by 200 meters, but he should be able to handle the distance. Yuga Kawada, who rode his Ivy Stakes run, is expected up.

Shonan Gulf: Like Justin Vista, the Harbinger-sired Shonan Gulf stands above the others for accomplishments, having claimed the Grade 3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes in early September, two months after he won his career debut by an astounding seven-length margin at Hakodate. In the G3, his competitiveness was chilling, when after advancing up the outside from far off the pace, he locked in on the frontrunning Gene King and went in for the kill. Both races were over 1,800 meters, but his speed, versatility and strength were all clearly evident in both tests, indicating he should have no problem with an additional 200 meters.

Badrinath: All eyes are on this first-crop son of the incredible five-time G1 champion Contrail, who won the 2019 Hopeful Stakes on a three-race winning streak from his debut, a streak that didn’t stop until his eighth race (a second to the legendary Almond Eye in the Japan Cup), by which time he had already landed four big titles. Son Badrinath has started his career with far less flash, but he’s 2-1-1 and on Oct. 26 landed the Hagi Stakes, a listed race over 1,800 meters at Kyoto. He broke his maiden over 2,000 meters at Hanshin and, based at Ritto at the barn of former jockey Mikio Matsunaga, Badrinath will be racing at Nakayama for his first time. He did well in his debut at Niigata, however, and is expected to weather the trip east well enough.

L’Avenue: By Lord Kanaloa and out of the American-bred mare Contested, L’Avenue has only one race to his name, but a very memorable performance on Nov. 8 in which he blew away the competition by winning by 5 lengths over the Tokyo 1,800. A look at his pedigree shows that his dam herself was a sprint champion but also won at the top level over a mile (albeit on dirt). L’Avenue shares his dam with Gibeon, who also shone early in his career, leaping only four starts into his career to a second by a neck in the 2018 Grade 1 NHK Mile Cup. Furthermore, Lord Kanaloa, though a sprint champion, is by King Kamehameha, who excelled at longer distances, and allows ample room as far as the bloodlines go that L’Avenue has what it takes to succeed. He’s looking good in work and, last week, trained together over the Ritto flat with two other horses, among them Arima hopeful Admire Terra, and easily beat them to the finish.

Others of interest are:

Yet to finish out of the top three in his four starts thus far, Gene King broke his maiden in his third start, then lept to the G3 level and finished only a neck behind Shonan Gulf in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes. It’s nearly four months on but his footwork is looking crisp and clean.
Three starts in, Noche Cerrada is 3-1-1 and looking fine. He quickened impressively and his competitiveness was evident when chased in his most recent 1-win class Kigiku Sho over 2,000 meters at Kyoto.
After winning his debut over the Nakayama 1,800, Forte Angelo displayed formidable late speed in the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu. Like his sire Fierement, he may be something of a late bloomer. Nakayama is close to home.
Raced over 2,000 meters in all three starts thus far, Winners Nine finished sixth in his most recent race, the G3 Kyoto Nisai Sakes a month ago. However, he gains strong points for being proven over the Nakayama 2,000 meters in open-class company.
From the Ritto barn of former jockey Yuichi Fukunaga, Ask Edinburgh pocketed two wins and a second from five starts (most recently in the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes). A seasoned racer so early in his career, he has experience amid bigger fields and over a variety of tracks.