Hopeful Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

A G1 race for 2-year-olds that showcases the stars of tomorrow
The Hopeful Stakes is a 2,000m G1 turf race for 2-year-olds held at Nakayama Racecourse in the final week of December. Since it has been upgraded to G1 status in 2017, the race has produced runners that have gone on to excel not only in the classics but also in G1 races as older horses. Perhaps the best example of this is 2019 winner Contrail, who went on to sweep the classic Triple Crown races the following year. Let’s now look at some trends in this race based on data for the last 10 years, including the years during which the race was held as a G2 race.

High Win ratio for race favorites
Over the last 10 years, race favorites have produced seven winners, with a Top 2 ratio of 80.0%. Runners backed as 2nd favorite have also achieved a Top 3 ratio of 60.0%, further highlighting the strength of fancied runners. Although the 2022 race was won by Dura Erede while backed as 14th favorite, resulting in an upset that triggered a massive Trifecta payout of 2,460,000 yen, we should essentially consider the Hopeful Stakes as a G1 race that is dominated by the top favorites. [Table 1]

Focus on runners born in January and February
It is often said that runners that were born early in the year have the edge in 2-year-old races. This trend is also apparent in the Hopeful Stakes, with horses born in January boasting markedly higher success ratios. In addition, horses born in February delivered the second highest Top 3 ratio. Conversely, the 13 horses born in May that entered the race produced zero Top 3 finishers. [Table 2]

Record of 2 or more wins is a key factor
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of track record in JRA races, we observe that runners with 2 or more wins in JRA races delivered the strongest performance. Runners with 2 or more wins have consistently occupied the Top 2 over the last 10 years. That is not to say, however, that runners with 1 or zero wins have been uncompetitive, but the best strategy is to anchor bets around a runner with 2 or more wins. [Table 3]

Focus on runners that have finished in the Top 2 of their previous race
Many of the Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years had finished in the Top 2 of their previous race. Conversely, runners that had been beaten to 5th or lower rarely pulled off a comeback, so we should check the finish in the previous race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Horses that debuted early have enjoyed success
Seven of the eight runners that have won the Hopeful Stakes since its upgrade to G1 status had contested their debut race in the summer racing season, with the latest debut coming in September. Another trend that stands out is that seven of the eight winners had contested their debut race on turf over a distance of 1,800m. In other words, we should focus on runners that began their careers in a 1,800m turf race during the summer racing season. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)