Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Pulsating dirt champion decider in Chukyo
This will be the fourth year since the Champions Cup moved from Hanshin to Chukyo Racecourse. In the last three times it was held here, the highest finish achieved by the race favorite was 2nd by Awardee in 2016, the other two only managing 4th or lower. Contrastingly, four horses backed as 6th favorite or lower have finished in the Top 3. To find some trends in this dirt champion decider, let’s now analyze results over the last 10 years (including 2007, when it was held on the 2,100m dirt course at Tokyo, and 2008-2013, when it was contested over 1,800m at Hanshin).

Check the previous race
First, if we aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous outing, we find that most of the Top 3 finishers had most recently contested in the “JBC Classic,” “Miyako Stakes,” or “Musashino Stakes.” Those coming straight from the JBC Classic have achieved particularly high success ratios. Besides these three, winners have also come from the “JBC Ladies’ Classic” and “Mile Championship Nambu Hai” in NAR racing. In fact, each of the three winners at Chukyo had previously contested a JBC race. It might be interesting to check the pre-race schedule of this year’s contingents as well. [Table 1]

Look at favoritism in recent races
Turning next to performances by lowest favoritism in the last three domestic races, the 10 winners over the last 10 years had a lowest favoritism of “1st-5th favorite.” Of these, the “2nd favorite” group is one step ahead in success ratios, including a Top 2 ratio of 30%. On the other hand, those in the “6th-9th favorite” group also have a decent Top 3 ratio of 16.1%, suggesting that there is also room for runners with a lowest favoritism of “6th-9th favorite” to perform well here. [Table 2]

Recent experience of contesting middle-distance dirt races is also important
Next, let’s look at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of dirt races over distances of 1,800m or more contested in their last three outings. Of the 20 Top 2 finishers in that time, 14 had appeared in such races at least twice in their previous three outings. By contrast, horses without such experience in their previous three outings have a meager Top 3 ratio of only 5.9%. Recent experience of contesting dirt races over distances of 1,800m or more seems to favor runners in the Champions Cup. [Table 3]

Check performances in recent graded races
In performances by the finish in the most recent graded race within the last four outings (except G1 and Jpn1), the two groups with the best Win ratios are those finishing “1st” in that race and those with “Last 4 outings all G1 and Jpn1.” In other words, this race seems to favor horses that have won their most recent graded race except G1 and Jpn1, or those that have only contested G1 or Jpn1 races in that time. As well as these two groups, horses finishing “3rd” and “4th” in the race in question each have a Top 3 ratio in excess of 20%. As this suggests, it would be wise to keep an eye on horses that were involved in the higher places in that race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check favoritism and finish in the last three outings
On checking the favoritism and finish in the previous three outings of eight winners since 2009, we find that none of them had finished two or more positions below their favoritism in that time, excluding overseas races. When looking for winners, our focus should be on horses that have not finished significantly below their favoritism in recent races. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)