Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Data Analysis

Memorable contests produced by famous horses to complete the racing year
Looking back over past winners of the Arima Kinen (Grand Prix), we find a long line of famous horses that have gone down in Japanese racing history. And with so many famous horses competing, there have been some famous contests as well. For many in the racing world, this drama of about two and a half minutes encapsulates their hopes and dreams for the whole year. What kind of trends can we spot in this grand finale to the racing year? Let’s see if we can find some pointers to success from results over the last 10 years.

Dominance of runners with recent G2 success
If we look at runners over the last 10 years in terms of their finish in recent G2 races, we find that 18 of the 20 Top 2 finishers had finished in the Top 3 in their most recent G2 race. Those finishing “1st”, “2nd” and “3rd” have all achieved Top 3 ratios in excess of 25%, and their success ratios dominate the top places. Given the status of this race as the curtain closer of the racing year, a record of finishing strongly in the most recent G2 race would be a definite plus. [Table 1]

Check win favoritism two races back
Turning next to aggregate performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism two races back, the only ones to win here were those backed as “1st favorite” or “2nd favorite” in a domestic race two races back. The “1st favorite” and “2nd favorite” groups in this category have also recorded Top 3 ratios of more than 30%. It might be interesting to check the runners’ favoritism in their last-but-one outing. [Table 2]

Look for the positioning of Top 3 finishing races in recent outings
Of runners over the last 10 years, all 20 Top 2 finishers came with a record of finishing 3rd within their previous 3 races. What’s more, 13 of these had passed the 4th corner in 5th or higher position in the race in question. If we limit our search to JRA races, horses with the best success ratios are those positioned “1st-5th” at the 4th corner in that race. It should be worth checking the runners’ position at the 4th corner in recent races when they finished in the Top 3. [Table 3]

Check favoritism in most recent 2,400m+ turf graded race
Next, let’s look at aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism in the most recent turf graded race over distances of 2,400m or more within their last 4 outings. Here, horses backed as “1st favorite” and “5th favorite” in that race have vastly higher Win ratios and Top 2 ratios than other groups, and these added to the “2nd favorite” have higher Top 3 ratios as well. This year, it might again be hard to ignore horses backed within the Top 5 favorites in their most recent turf graded race over distances of 2,400m or more. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check the record at Nakayama Racecourse
Of the nine winners over the last 10 years (except 2011, when the race schedule was modified under the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake), eight had finished in the Top 3 in their most recent outing at Nakayama Racecourse (the exception being the 2014 winner Gentildonna, appearing for the first time at Nakayama). It seems we should take a good look at the runners’ record at Nakayama Racecourse. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)