February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

First G1 of the year over Tokyo mile to decide dirt champion
In recent years, unfavored horses have performed remarkably well in the February Stakes, with notable examples including Copano Rickey (16th favorite in 16-horse field) pulling off an upset victory in 2014, Testa Matta (7th favorite) triumphing in 2012, and Success Brocken (6th favorite) notching a win in 2009. Favored horses, on the other hand, have finished in the Top 3 eight times over the last 10 years, delivering performance that is consistent with their backing. Let’s now identify some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Horse numbers starting in inner and outer brackets enjoy high win ratios
Looking into performances by horse number over the last 10 years, we find that nine of the 10 winners entered the race with horse numbers "1-4" or "13-16," and that the Win ratio and Top 2 ratio for both groups significantly exceeded those for runners with horse numbers "5-8" or "9-12." Horses in the "13-16" group also accounted for nine of the 20 Top 2 finishers. These could be considered useful statistics when planning bet formations. [Table 1]

Runners in previous year’s Champions Cup are strong performers
If we aggregate performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finishes in the previous year’s Champions Cup (held under the name “Japan Cup Dirt” until 2013), we find that horses that appeared in the previous year’s Champions Cup tend to deliver stronger performance (and have higher success ratios) than counterparts without such experience. Horses that finished “1st” and “2nd” in the previous year’s Champions Cup accounted for over 60% of the Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, while horses coming in “10th or lower” in the previous year’s Champions Cup made up 31.3% of the Top 2 and 37.5% of the Top 3. In other words, horses that ran in the previous year’s Champions Cup (including those that suffered a major defeat) should be given serious attention in this race. [Table 2]

Check performance in recent dirt races over distances of 1,600m or more
Turning next to aggregate performances over the last 10 years in terms of the number of Top 3 finishes in dirt races over distances of 1,600m or more contested in the last four outings, we find that horses with “four” or “three” Top 3 finishes had far better success ratios than horses with two, one, or zero such finishes. Moreover, a lower number of Top 3 finishes tends to produce a lower success ratio. Accordingly, it would seem prudent to check the distance and finish position in recent races. [Table 3]

Seek out the winner!
Check race record after the turn of the year
Looking into performances of the five winners since 2013 in the period extending from the turn of the year to the February Stakes, we find that none of the horses in this group entered more than two races during the period, that three of the five ran in and won a single race during the period, and that the remaining two did not appear in any races held after the turn of the year. Incidentally, even if we expand our analysis to include the last 10 years, we find that the winners either only entered one race after the turn of the year and finished in the Top 3, or did not appear in any races held after the turn of year, and that there were no victories among horses who finished 4th or lower in races held after the turn of the year. [Table 4]

(Michio Kawano)