Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring Grand Prix notable for standout performances by unfavored runners
Last year’s Takarazuka Kinen was won by 3rd favorite Satono Crown, while Kitasan Black (backed by solid win odds of 1.4) was beaten to 9th. In 2016, the victory was secured by 8th favorite Marialite. In 2015, the crown was taken by 6th favorite Lovely Day, while the 2nd and 3rd places were occupied by the 10th and 11th favorite runners, respectively. In other words, this is a race with a history of upsets, so we need to sufficiently bear in mind the possibility that poorly favored horses will rise to the top again this year. In this sense as well, it would be a good idea to check trends based on past data.

Unusual stats in performance by win odds
Over the last 10 years, four runners backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range have appeared in the Takarazuka Kinen (including Kitasan Black last year), but none of these have secured a victory. Since Deep Impact won the 2006 race with solid win odds of 1.1, runners backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range have consistently suffered defeats. Another interesting statistic is that only two of the 12 runners backed by win odds in the “3.0-6.9” range have finished in the Top 2. Runners with win odds in the 10.0-19.9 range have produced three winners in the last 10 years. However, all three winners were backed by win odds in the “10.0-14.9” range, and that runners with win odds in the “15.0-19.9” range were all beaten to 4th or lower. [Table 1]

Check performances by “bracket” number and “horse” number
Looking at performances by bracket number over the last 10 years, we find that only runners starting in brackets 1, 6, and 8 have emerged as winners. Another interesting fact is that this group has produced zero runners-up. Moreover, if we look at performances by horse numbers grouped in pairs, we observe that runners with numbers “9, 10” or “11, 12” have enjoyed success (although the eight runners with horse No. 12 have all finished outside of the Top 3). In addition, a total of three runners with numbers “15, 16” or “17, 18” have won the race. Incidentally, the last 10 runners-up have entered the race with a number in the “1-9” range and seven out of 10 third-place finishers with a number in the “1-4” range. In other words, it is worth remembering that runners-up and third-place finishers have often started in the inner brackets in this race. [Table 2] [Table 3]

Watch performance by previous race
Looking at performances in terms of the previous race contested by runners over the last 10 years, we find that runners that had contested a G1 race last time out enjoyed success. For example, runners that had come straight from the Tenno Sho (Spring) produced four winners. In addition, runners that had come straight from prep races, particularly the Kinko Sho up to 2011 and the Naruo Kinen from 2012, often performed well. [Table 4]

Focus on performance in January or February of the same year
In the last 10 Takarazuka Kinen races, runners that “had finished in the Top 2 of a graded race held in January or February of the same year” finished in the Top 2 in each year except 2011 and 2014. Last year’s winner Satono Crown also fell into this category. Accordingly, it would be a good idea to check the race record in January or February of this year’s runners. [Table 5]

Also watch runners that contested their first race of the year in mid to late March
Looking at the Takarazuka Kinen Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years in terms of their racing record in the same year, we note that “runners that contested their first race of the year in mid-to-late March” have consistently delivered one Top 2 finisher in the seven years since 2011. Last year’s runner-up Gold Actor (fifth favorite) fell into this category. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Check most recent G1 performance and G1/G2 record in last four outings
In the last six Takarazuka Kinen races, winners were runners that “had been beaten to 4th or lower in their most recent G1 race, but won a G1/G2 race in their last four outings.” Last year’s winner Satono Crown was beaten to 6th in his last race (Osaka Hai), but won his last-but-one race (Kyoto Kinen). In other words, it may be worth taking another look at runners with this kind of record this year. [Table 7]

(Yasunori Asano)