Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Race that determines the spring sprint champion
The Takamatsunomiya Kinen, which is regarded as the race that determines the spring sprint champion, has been won by a long line of charismatic horses, including famous sires Lord Kanaloa and Kinshasa no Kiseki. Also worthy of note is that many runners, including the two aforementioned ones, have entered the top places in this race in multiple years. Let’s now look for some other trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2011 race held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Focus on runners that were highly favored in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we find that nine of the 10 winners and 23 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 4th favorite or higher. This suggests runners that were highly favored in their previous race generally perform well. Among runners that were backed as 10th favorite or lower in their previous race, four runners finished in the Top 3, but all four finished in the Top 5 in their previous race. In other words, among runners that were poorly favored in their previous race, we should focus on those with strong performance there. [Table 1]

Watch runners with horse numbers 1-9
Looking at performances by runners in the eight years since the Chukyo Racecourse was reopened in terms of horse number, we find that the winner with the highest horse number was 2013 winner Lord Kanaloa (number 11), while runners with numbers 12 and upward have produced zero winners. In addition, all winners since 2014 have entered the race with the numbers 1-9, and the same is true for the 12 Top 3 finishers since 2016. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, our primary focus should be on runners with the numbers 1-9. [Table 2]

Check number of Top 2 finishes in recent turf graded races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of Top 2 finishes in turf graded races within their last three outings, we observe that 27 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of such a race, and that runners that had finished three or two times in the Top 2 of such a race achieved extremely high success ratios. In addition, runners that had finished zero times in the Top 2 of a turf graded race within their last three outings produced two runners-up. However, both had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of another Takamatsunomiya Kinen race (Let’s Go Donki in 2108 and Seiun Kosei in 2019). In other words, we should lower our expectations of runners that have no favorable track record in previous Takamatsunomiya Kinen races or experience finishing in the Top 2 of a recent turf graded race. [Table 3]

Runners that have appeared in recent G1, G2, or top-level dirt races are strong performers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of appearances in G1, G2, or top-level dirt races within their last two outings, we note that 17 of the 20 Top 2 finishers had experience of contesting a G1, G2, or top-level dirt race within their last two outings. In addition, success ratios showed major differences between runners that had entered such a race two times or one time, and those that had entered such a race zero times. This suggests runners that have recently contested a high-level race are likely to be strong performers. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on finish and time difference with winner in recent races
Looking at performances of the last 10 winners by finish in races other than G1 or overseas races within their last three outings, we find that three winners won all corresponding races, and six had experience of finishing 2nd or lower in such a race (the remaining winner was Hong Kong-trained Aerovelocity, whose last three outings were in Hong Kong). Furthermore, looking at performances of the six winners that had been beaten to 2nd or lower in terms of the time difference with the race winner in the applicable race, we observe that all had a time difference of 0.6s or less. In other words, our attention this year should also be on runners that have not been defeated in recent races other than G1 or overseas races, and on runners that have been defeated in such a race but with a time difference of 0.6s or less with the winner. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)