Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Final leg of the Triple Crown for filies that has been won by a long line of famous filies
The Shuka Sho was held at Kyoto Racecourse from 1996, its inaugural year, to 2020. Winners over the last 10 years have included Triple Crown fillies Gentildonna, Almond Eye, and Daring Tact, as well as runners that have won G1 races overseas such as Vivlos and Deirdre. This year, the race will be held at Hanshin Racecourse. Let’s now analyze some trends in this final leg of the Triple Crown for fillies based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners that have finished in the Top 2 of one of the spring Triple Crown races
As this race represents the final leg of the Triple Crown for fillies, we first look at performances by runners in terms of highest finish in the spring Triple Crown races (Oka Sho [Japanese 1000 Guineas] and Yushun Himba [Japanese Oaks]), and find that runners that had finished 1st in one of those races achieved an excellent Win ratio of 45.5%. Runners with a highest finish of 2nd in those races produced zero winners but achieved a Top 3 ratio of 54.5%, on par with the runners that had secured a victory in those races. Conversely, runners that had finished outside the Top 5 in those races achieved an unimpressive Top 3 ratio of 4.9%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of runners in the latter group. In addition, runners that had not entered the preceding Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and/or Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) produced three winners, so we should not underestimate runners that have delivered standout performances since the summer. [Table 1]

Runners coming straight from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) or the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial) have fared well in recent years
Next, looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we observe that half (15) of the Top 3 finishers had previously contested the Kansai Telecasting Corp. Sho Rose Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial). However, if we limit our analysis to the years from 2016, runners coming from the Kansai Telecasting Corp. Sho Rose Stakes produced zero winners and delivered performance of [0-1-4-26]. Incidentally, 2016 was also the year in which the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial) was upgraded to G3 status, and runners that had contested that race as a trial race to the Shuka Sho since 2016 produced five Top 2 finishers. In addition, runners coming straight from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) have produced the three consecutive winners since 2018, so we should keep in mind that trends appear to have changed in recent years. [Table 2]

Finish in previous race is also important
Looking at performances of runners in terms of finish in the previous race, we note that 28 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race. Runners that had finished 6th or lower in their previous race seemed to struggle to stage a comeback. While runners that had come straight from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) or the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial) after the latter was upgraded to G3 status performed well overall in recent years, those that had finished 6th or lower in those races struggled with performance of [0-0-0-16]. [Table 3]

Ritto-based runners have the edge
Looking at performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their affiliation, we find that runners based on Ritto Training Center led the number of Top 3 finishers and the success ratios by a wide margin. Among runners based on Miho Training Center, those that “had experience of finishing in the Top 5 of the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) or the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and also had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race” delivered performance of [1-3-1-5], resulting in a Top 3 ratio of 50.0%. Miho-based runners in this group have delivered notable performance in recent years, finishing consistently in the Top 2 in the three years since 2018. In other words, we should not overlook Miho-based runners that have performed well in the spring Triple Crown races. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check favoritism in this year’s Shuka Sho and in the last two races
Nine of the 10 last winners (excluding 2019 winner Chrono Genesis) entered the Shuka Sho backed as 3rd favorite or higher. In 2019, Chrono Genesis was backed as 4th favorite with win odds of 6.9, which was not far removed from the 3rd favorite runner (6.5). In addition, nine of the 10 last winners (excluding 2013 winner Meisho Mambo) had also been backed as 3rd favorite or higher in their last two races. In other words, successive high favoritism in recent races may be a useful statistic to predict the race winner. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)