Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider of the spring season
The Takamatsunomiya Kinen is the sprint champion decider of the spring season. Among the last 10 winners, 2013 winner Lord Kanaloa and 2018 winner Fine Needle both went on to triumph in the Sprinters Stakes in the fall season and received the JRA Award for Best Sprinter or Miler in the same year. Lord Kanaloa also sired 2021 winner Danon Smash, thus leaving his mark on Japanese horseracing across the generations. Let's now look for some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on winners of prep races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners that had previously contested a race in Hong Kong enjoyed the highest Top 3 ratio. Danon Smash, the 2021 winner, had contested the Hong Kong Sprint in December of the previous year last time out, so runners with a similar racing schedule should not be discounted because the Takamatsunomiya Kinen will be their first race back on home soil or due to the layoff between races. Among runners coming from domestic races, the bulk were runners that had finished in the Top 3 of the Silk Road Stakes, the Hankyu Hai, or the Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes. Among these runners, those that had previously contested the Silk Road Stakes and secured the victory in that race delivered performance of [1-1-2-3], with more than half of the runners in this group finishing in the Top 3. Runners that had previously contested the Hankyu Hai and notched the win in that race delivered performance of [2-2-0-4], with half finishing in the Top 2. Finally, we note that runners that had previously contested the Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes and triumphed in that race delivered lackluster performance of [0-0-0-8]. [Table 1]

Watch horses aged 4 to 6
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that horses aged 4 to 6 were neck and neck in terms of the number of Top 3 finishers and Top 3 ratios. Horses aged 6 produced only one winner but six runners-up. While it is worth noting that such runners have struggled to secure a victory, there is no evidence that points to a major gap in Top 3 finishes relative to 4 and 5-year-olds. In contrast, horses aged 7 and above have only produced one Top 3 finisher: 2015 winner Aerovelocity (trained in Hong Kong). JRA-affiliated horses aged 7 and above have consistently fared poorly with performance of [0-0-0-48]. We can therefore lower our expectations of those runners based on the data. [Table 2]

Front-runners perform well
Over the last 10 years, runners that were positioned 6th or higher when passing the 4th corner in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen delivered performance of [8-4-6-47] (Top 3 ratio of 27.7%) and accounted for over half of the Top 3 finishers. This suggests that the race favors runners that occupy a front position. We can use runners' track record in JRA open-class turf races contested over a distance of 1,400m or less as an indicator of their ability to maintain a front position. Nine of the 10 winners (excluding 2015 winner Aerovelocity [trained in Hong Kong]) had experience of winning a race with the aforementioned conditions after passing the 4th corner in 4th or higher position. Meanwhile, runners without such experience had an unimpressive Top 3 ratio of 10.6%. [Table 3]

Runners from Mr. Prospector-line have enjoyed success in recent years
By pedigree, nine of the 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years traced their lineage back to Mr. Prospector. Sunday Silence-line runners produced zero winners over the same period, and only one winner if we expand our analysis period to the last 10 years (2014 winner Copano Richard, sired by Daiwa Major). If we focus on pedigree, we should look at runners from the Mr. Prospector line. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Strong record in short-distance races is a prerequisite for winners
Nine of the last 10 winners (excluding 2017 winner Seiun Kosei) had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a turf G1 or G2 race (including overseas) contested over a distance of 1,400m or less since September of the previous year. Given that the Takamatsunomiya Kinen determines the spring champion of the spring season, we should focus our attention on runners that have delivered top performance in a race with the aforementioned specifications since the fall of last year. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)