Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider that ushers in the autumn G1 season
Notable winners of the Sprinters Stakes over the last 10 years have included Lord Kanaloa (who won the Sprinters Stakes in 2012 and 2013, and went on to secure a victory in the Hong Kong Sprint for the second straight year), Fine Needle (who won the Sprinters Stakes after triumphing in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen of the same year), and Gran Alegria (who secured six victories in turf G1 races with a distance of 1,600m or less). Let’s now look for some trends in this race that brings together the top active sprinters by analyzing the data for the last 10 years, including 2014, when the race was held at Niigata Racecourse.

Highly favored runners have an edge
Looking at performances by favoritism over the last 10 years, we find that although Snow Dragon won the 2014 race held at Niigata Racecourse while backed as 13th favorite, the nine winners since the race moved to Nakayama Racecourse were all backed as 3rd favorite or higher. Runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher also produced seven runners-up, so highly favored runners often occupy the Top 2. Conversely, third-place finishers included eight runners backed as 6th or lower, suggesting that poorly favored runners can also break through. When planning bet formations for the Top 3, we should keep these trend in mind. [Table 1]

Watch runners that have performed well in the Centaur Stakes
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we observe that runners coming from the Sankei Sho Centaur Stakes made up the largest group overall and delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers (13). In particular, runners that had finished in the Top 2 of the Centaur Stakes produced five winners and four runners-up, reflecting strong performance. If we limit our analysis to the last four years, such runners delivered three wins and three seconds (Top 2 ratio of 75.0%), an outstanding result that cannot be overlooked. In addition, runners coming from the Yasuda Kinen delivered two winners in recent years (Red Falx in 2017 and Gran Alegria in 2020), so this has also been a favorable trajectory in recent years. [Table 2]

Strong performance by runners that have won a JRA graded race in the same year
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 24 had won a JRA graded race in the same year. Among these, runners that had won a JRA G1 race in the same year achieved four wins and a second, resulting in a high Win ratio of 36.4%. In addition, runners that had won a JRA G2 race in the same year (excluding those that had won a JRA G1 race in the same year) delivered two wins and four seconds, with roughly half finishing in the Top 3. In other words, we should raise our expectations of runners that have won a G1 or G2 race since the turn of the year. [Table 3]

Focus on descendants of Mr. Prospector
In the nine races held at Nakayama Racecourse, 13 of the 27 Top 3 finishers traced their lineage back to Mr. Prospector. Runners in this group included Lord Kanaloa (sire: King Kamehameha) and Red Falx (sire: Swept Overboard). In addition, runners in this group that were backed as 3rd or higher delivered six wins, three seconds and a third (Top 3 ratio of 71.4%), pointing to a high probability of a Top 3 finish. Such runners therefore appear to be reliable candidates for bet formations. Meanwhile, among runners that trace their lineage back to Nasrullah, which include the offspring of Sprinter Stakes winner Sakura Bakushin O and their offspring, those that were backed as 3rd or higher were all beaten to 4th or lower, and struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 5.3%. [Table 4]

Furthermore, among runners that trace their lineage back to Sunday Silence, those that had finished in the Top 2 of a 1,200m turf JRA G1 race achieved a Win ratio of 33.3% and a Top 2 ratio of 66.7%. This suggests we should also watch descendants of Sunday Silence that have already finished in the Top 2 of a G1 sprint race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Watch favoritism in previous race as well
As mentioned in the paragraph preceding Table 1, nine of the last 10 winners were backed as 3rd favorite or higher (the exception being Snow Dragon, who won the 2014 race at Niigata Racecourse), but they had also been backed as 3rd favorite or higher in their previous race. Furthermore, these nine winners all had “experience of winning a JRA graded race in the same year” as shown in Table 3. These conditions are likely to serve as indicators for win contenders. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)