Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Data Analysis

Champion decider for 2-year-old fillies in which favored runners tend to have the edge
In the 2021 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, Circle of Life won the race backed by win odds of 5.6 (3rd favorite), Lovely Your Eyes finished second backed by win odds of 51.2 (8th favorite), and Water Navillera came in third backed by win odds of 6.6 (4th favorite), producing a Trifecta payout of 114,300 yen. The last time Trifecta bets for the race paid out more than 100,000 yen was in 2012. In the 18 years since 2004, when Trifecta bets were introduced, payouts have exceeded 50,000 yen in only seven years and 100,000 yen in only three years. In other words, this champion decider for 2-year-old fillies tends to unfold more or less in line with expectations. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners with 2 or 3 career starts
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had two or three career starts. Conversely, runners with either only one start or four or more career starts struggled with Top 3 ratios of 7.1% and 3.7%, respectively. We should therefore lower our expectations of runners coming to this race with only a newcomer win, and of runners with 4 or more career starts. [Table 1]

Runners that have previously been beaten to 4th or lower struggle
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had never been beaten to 4th or lower in a JRA race. Conversely, runners with experience of such defeats struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 3.2%. This suggests that we should focus on runners that have consistently finished in the Top 3 since their debut race. [Table 2]

Strong record in longer-distance races is a key factor
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 25 had experience of winning a 1,600m+ JRA race. Conversely, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 5.7%. We should therefore not expect too much from runners that have not secured a victory in races with a longer distance than the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. [Table 3]

In addition, among the five Top 3 finishers without experience of winning a 1,600m+ JRA race, three had finished in the Top 3 of a “JRA graded race, excluding all-fillies races, with a field of 14 or more runners.” This suggests we need to discount runners that have not won a JRA 1,600m+ race and have also not finished in the Top 3 of a graded race contested alongside male horses. [Table 4]

Solid performance by runners that have enjoyed success in races held in the Kanto area
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 18 had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of “a 1-win class race or higher held at Tokyo or Nakayama Racecourse.” Runners with such experience achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 43.9%. This year, we should again first look at runners that have delivered a strong performance in a race held in the Kanto area. [Table 5]

In addition, among the 12 Top 3 finishers without experience of finishing in the Top 2 of “a 1-win class race or higher held at Tokyo or Nakayama Racecourse,” nine had experience of “finishing in the Top 3 of a JRA graded race and ranking 4th or higher in the estimated final three furlongs times” in those races. When comparing runners without a strong record in races held in the Kanto area, we should focus on their finishes and closing speed in graded races contested in the past. [Table 6]

Runners starting in the inner- or outermost brackets have not entered the top places in recent years
All 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years started from barrier Nos. 4 thru 13. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we should be wary of runners starting in the inner or outer barriers. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Last five winners had won major prep races
The last five winners had all contested either the Artemis Stakes or the KBS Kyoto Sho Fantasy Stakes in their previous race and secured a victory in that race. First and foremost, therefore, we should focus on runners that have triumphed in these races, which are regarded as major prep races for the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. In addition, other shared features among the last five winners were that they had two or three career starts, that they had never been beaten to 4th or lower in a JRA race, and that they drew Gate Nos. 4 thru 13 in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. This suggests we should also take into consideration the trends shown in Tables 1, 2, and 7. [Table 8]

(Masaya Ibuki)