Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Preview

Do Deuce

Urban Chic

Danon Decile

Stunning Rose

Stars on Earth

Blow the Horn

Shahryar

The stage is set for the Grade 1 Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) this Sunday, Dec. 22 at Nakayama Racecourse. JPY500 million is to be had for the horse that crosses the line in first in this grueling test of ability and stamina over 2,500 meters of turf. Twenty-two horses ranging in age from 3 to 8, including two mares, one filly and two geldings, have been nominated to race. Sixteen will go to the gate.

The Arima Kinen, along with the Takarazuka Kinen in June, are two races for which the field is elected in part by the fans. This year a record 478,415 ballots were cast for one horse alone, five-time Grade 1 winner Do Deuce. Also, unlike last year, when the fans’ Top 2 choices did not take part, the 69th running of the Arima Kinen should see not only the top two ballot winners make an appearance, but a total eight of the top 10 horses the fans most want to see race.

The Top 3 in the balloting are Do Deuce, winner of both this year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn) and the Japan Cup, this year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner Danon Decile, and 2024 Osaka Hai champ Bellagio Opera. Following them are this year’s Takarazuka Kinen winner Blow the Horn (5th most popular in the balloting), the 2024 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St, Leger) winner Urban Chic (7th), 7-year-old Deep Bond (8th) back for his fourth Arima Kinen, two-time G1 winner Stunning Rose (9th) and 2023 Tenno Sho (Spring) champion Justin Palace (10th).

The Arima Kinen is run to the right, over the Nakayama inner course. However, the actual starting point of the race is set outside the main backstretch in a chute that leads into the turn for home. This demands getting a good position early on in order to not have to cover extra ground over the already demanding distance of 2,500 meters, and it’s part of the reason the field is open only to 16 runners. Nonetheless, the inner gates are though to have an advantage.

The field passes before the grandstand and heads up the hill starting about 200 meters before the finish line and rising approx. 2.5 meters over the next 100 meters. Then it’s once around, into the 310-meter homestretch again, and up the hill for the second time before crossing the finish line. Compared to the Tokyo 2,400 meters, the relatively short stretch of Nakayama allows for more of some very exciting maneuvering.

The Arima Kinen is the 11th race on the Sunday card of 12 at Nakayama, with a post time locally of 15:40. Assigned weights are 56kg for 3-year-olds, 58kg for 4-year-olds and up, and fillies and mares receive a 2-kg allowance.

Zenno Rob Roy’s time of 2 minutes, 29.5 seconds set in 2004 remains the record for both the course and the race.

Here’s a look at some of the main contenders:

Do Deuce: The Heart’s Cry-sired Do Deuce is now 5 years old and looking to cap his racing career with his sixth G1 victory. He is on a double-G1 streak after capturing both the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and the Japan Cup. A first over the finish line this Sunday would give him not only back-to-back wins of the Arima Kinen, but would be a royal finishing touch to his career. If he can add another G1 to his streak, he’ll be the first to repeat what Zenno Rob Roy accomplished in 2004 at the age of 4 with his win of the Tenno Sho (Autumn), the Japan Cup and the Arima Kinen, all under the recently retired Olivier Peslier. Do Deuce is a year older than Zenno Rob Roy was, but he should have another legend in the saddle, Yutaka Take. Take, now 55 years old, currently matches Kenichi Ikezoe for most wins of the Arima Kinen at four apiece. Win or lose, a retirement ceremony is scheduled for Do Deuce after the last race at Nakayama on Sunday. If he wins the Arima Kinen, he’ll follow in the footsteps of three others over the past decade - Gentildonna (2014), Kitasan Black (2017) and Lys Gracieux (2019) - who went out with one last hurrah and a ceremony to honor their accomplishments.

Urban Chic: One of two youngsters expected to be among the top picks on Sunday, is the 3-year-old Urban Chic, this year’s Kikuka Sho winner. After showing potential with a fourth in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), the son of Suave Richard disappointed in the Japanese Derby with an 11th-place finish out of 17 runners. Urban Chic returned in the fall with renewed promise and, with new partner Christophe Lemaire, they proved a winning combination. The colt bagged his first graded-stakes win with the Grade 2 St. Lite Kinen over the 2,200 meters at Nakayama, followed by his first top-level victory with the Kikuka Sho. From 17 bids, Lemaire has won the Arima Kinen three times, finished second five times and third twice.

Danon Decile: Another popular 3-year-old among the nominees is this year’s Derby winner Danon Decile. Withdrawn from the Satsuki Sho just moments before being loaded into the gate due to concerns that something was amiss, Danon Decile returned a month later and captured the Japanese Derby by a 2-length margin, surprising as the ninth pick of 17. Returning in the autumn, the son of Epiphaneia (who finished fifth in the 2014 Arima Kinen) went unprepped into the final of the 3-year-old Classics, the 3,000-meter Kikuka Sho. Unable to show his best, he finished in sixth place. Norihiro Yokoyama has ridden all the colt’s six starts and is expected to have the ride on Sunday. If he can win, it’ll be the veteran jockey’s first Arima Kinen win since 1996, 28 years ago when he won aboard Sakura Laurel.

Stunning Rose: This 5-year-old daughter of King Kamehameha had been stunning indeed through most of her 3-year-old year, scoring a second and a first in the only two Classics she took on, the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and the Shuka Sho. But when up against older horses, she was no match, and slumped through her next three starts. She was given over 10 months off, and returned to slump through three more races. A dizzying change in riders seemed to help little, but, last out on Nov. 11, under yet a new partner Cristian Demuro, hope re-emerged as Stunning Rose bloomed victorious in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. She has recorded two wins and a fifth at Nakayama, albeit over only 1,800-2,000 meters. This time, the reins are expected to go to new partner Ryan Moore.

Stars on Earth: Last year, Stars on Earth went to the Arima Kinen off a third in the Japan Cup. She broke from the far outside gate and quickly went forward to shadow frontrunner Titleholder in second position, holding her ground to finish second only half a length off winner Do Deuce. Up to and including that point, this one had never failed to finish out of the Top 3 in 12 starts, and she’d claimed the first two filly Classics. This year, the Duramente 5-year-old has had only two starts, the Dubai Sheema Classic at the end of March (finished in eighth place) and the Japan Cup last month. In the Japan Cup, returning after eight months, she once again broke from the far outside gate, was sent forward and finished seventh only 0.6 seconds behind winner Do Deuce. This year, Yuga Kawada, who won the 2-year-old pinnacle Grade 1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes last Sunday, will be in the saddle.

Others to watch:

Blow the Horn had proven himself a consistent finisher in the Top 3 through most of his eight starts, including a win of the Takarazuka Kinen in late June. However, two double-digit finishes later he finds himself fallen from grace, by no means should he be ignored. Slower going or rough ground would be an added plus on race day.
Last year, Shahryar went from the Dubai Sheema Classic to the Sapporo Kinen, then the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and finally to the Arima Kinen posting 5-11-3-5 in the four. This year, with the same rotation, he’s 2-5-3 so far. On paper, his prospects for at least making the board again in the Arima Kinen are good. In fact, they’re probably even better, given that last year the plans were to race in Hong Kong, but he was withdrawn shortly before the race. This year, with no overseas excursion just before this race, he should be fresher.