Hopeful Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Two-year-old middle-distance champion decider that paves the way for strong performance in Classic races
In 2014, the Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes was moved to Nakayama Racecourse, renamed to Hopeful Stakes, and upgraded to G2 status. In 2017, the race was elevated to G1 status. True to its name, this “hopeful” two-year-old race serves as an indicator of performance in the Classic races of the following year. For example, 2019 winner Contrail went on to become the undefeated Triple Crown winner in 2020, while 2018 winner Saturnalia dominated the 2019 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results in the seven years since its upgrade to G1 status.

Recent years have brought upsets
In the seven years since the race was upgraded to G1 status, highly favored runners have put on a strong showing, with race favorites winning five races and the runners-up in those races all being backed as 2nd to 4th favorite. However, the 2022 race was won by 14th favorite Dura Erede, while last year’s third place was secured by 13th favorite Sunrise Zipangu. In other words, in recent years, runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have turned in consecutive strong performances. [Table 1]

Strong showing by runners coming from an open-class race
The last seven winners had all contested an open-class race in their previous race, and more than half of the runners-ups and third-place finishers similarly came from an open-class race. Although the Hopeful Stakes is a race for two-year-olds, who by definition have short careers, a certain degree of experience is necessary to fare well in this race, which is not surprising given its G1 status. Runners coming from their first victory, in particular, struggled, with the first and last runner in this group to enjoy success being 2017 third-place finisher Stay Foolish. [Table 2]

Focus on runners with 2 or more wins
While runners coming from their first victory have tended to struggle, the last three winners were all single-win runners that had won either a newcomer or maiden race. However, over the last seven years, single-win runners achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 8.1%. In the six years other than 2023, several runners with 2 or more wins finished in the Top 3, so we should focus our attention on runners with 2 or more wins. [Table 3]

Focus on month and distance of debut race
Looking at performances by runners over the last seven years in terms of the month of their debut race, we note that runners who had contested their debut race in June delivered four winners, and achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 38.9%. This suggests that an early racing readiness is an important factor for a G1 race held in this period. [Table 4]

Next, looking at performances by runners in terms of the distance of their debut race, we find that 17 of the 21 Top 3 finishers had contested a 1,800m turf race as their debut race. Among these, runners that had contested a 1,800m turf race as their debut race in June achieved strong performance of [3-1-2-3]. Also included in this group were 2022 winner Dura Erede and 2023 third-place finisher Sunrise Zipangu, who both delivered an upset. Therefore, we should not underestimate runners that have contested a 1,800m turf race as their debut race in June, even if they are poorly favored. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Watch distance of previous race
The last seven winners all came from a 1,800m+ turf race. In addition, as shown in Table 2, all seven winners had contested an open-class race in their previous race, and either finished 1st in that race or were beaten with a time difference of 0.2s or less with the winner. In other words, we should select win contenders from runners coming from a 1,800m+ open-class turf race with the record described above. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)