Hopeful Stakes (G1) - Preview

Croix du Nord

Magic Sands

Masquerade Ball

Giovanni

Jet Magnum

Piko Chan Black

Amakihi

The stage is set for the final big race of the year as 19 nominees prepare to take on the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes this Saturday, Dec. 28 at Nakayama Racecourse. Only 18 will secure a berth.

The Hopeful Stakes follows the other G1 2-year-old top-level competitions, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (open to both colts and fillies) and the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, both over 1,600 meters. The Hopeful Stakes offers not only the distance option, but it also serves as something of a test run for the Grade 1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), the first race in Japan’s Triple Crown.

Established in 1984, the now 2,000-meter turf event has shapeshifted under a number of aliases, including the most recent “Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes.” Currently, going by the name of the “Hopeful Stakes,” it’s the only middle distance G1 event held for 2-year-olds. Winning this race, or one of the other previously two mentioned G1s, can lead to being recognized next month with the JRA Award for Best 2-Year-Old Colt or Best 2-Year-Old Filly.

Top prize is JPY70 million, an amount claimed last year by Regaleira, who only days ago captured the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix). Her record win (2 minutes, 00.2 seconds) of the Hopeful Stakes was also the first time a filly has won the race since it was promoted to Grade 1 status in 2017. This year, only one filly (Reve de l’Opera) will compete amid 17 colts.

The Hopeful Stakes is the No. 11 race of 12 on the Saturday card at Nakayama, with a post time locally of 15:40.

Here’s a look at some of the expected popular choices.

Croix du Nord: A striking black Northern Farm-bred colt by Kitasan Black, Croix du Nord aced his Tokyo debut, then returned some five months later posting a weight gain of 24kg to top the field of nine in the Grade 2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes. Croix du Nord covered the final three furlongs in 33.3 seconds, clocking 1 minutes, 46.8 seconds over 1,800 meters of fast turf at Tokyo. Although he has had no experience racing to the right, with his keen racing sense and his last race expected to have sharpened him even further, Croix du Nord is seen as thehorse to beat. Jockey Yuichi Kitamura has ridden him for the past two starts and is expected to be in the saddle on Saturday as well.

Magic Sands: The Kizuna-sired, Northern Farm-bred Magic Sands has been trained by Ritto-based trainer Naosuke Sugai. Like Croix du Nord, Magic Sands has also been given two 1,800-meter starts and won them both. However, unlike Croix du Nord, Magic Sands has experience racing to the right. He leapt from his debut at Hakodate in July to beat 11 others in the Grade 3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes in late August. He secured the win by a nose over Arma Veloce, who won the Grade1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies early this month. Unlike the filly, Magic Sands rounded into the straight five wide but still managed to make it to the top a winner with a time of 1 minute, 50.3 seconds over heavy going. It is a new venue and he’ll be racing for the first time in four months, raising some questions, but his times in morning trackwork have been good. “He’s a serious, honest horse, with impressive composure,” says Sugai. “He has keen racing sense and I don’t think the course will bother him at all.” 

Masquerade Ball: The Miho-based, Shadai Farm-bred Masquerade Ball is sired by Duramente. His son shares his dam Mask Off with his highly consistent half sister Masked Diva, who missed the Top 3 only twice from her nine career starts, only once from her six graded stakes bids, until tendonitis ended her racing career this past October. Little brother has won both his starts thus far, a debut at Niigata over 1,600 meters in August, followed by the listed Ivy Stakes over 1,800 meters at Tokyo in October. Jockey Keita Tosaki breezed the colt Dec. 18 on the right-handed woodchip course for a time of 85.0 seconds over six furlongs. Trainer Takahisa Tezuka says, “He’s no longer lugging out around the bend, but because he’s only had one turn in a race until now, Tosaki is concerned about the four turns at Nakayama. The colt has a rather difficult temperament and he might not find them tolerable.” If he does, good results are well within reach.

Giovanni: A son of Epiphaneia, the Ritto-based Giovanni has a win and two seconds from his three career starts, the most recent the Grade 3 Radio Nikkei Hai Kyoto Nisai Stakes on Nov. 23, preceded by the Nojigiku Stakes at Chukyo and a debut at Kokura. It was a colt named Eri King that beat him to the finish line in his last two starts, a colt that is not racing this time due to injury. Having lost closely in both, Giovanni had also been slow away in his last outing and didn’t find the slow pace of the race to his liking, preferring to secure a good position from the break. His three starts thus far have all been amid small fields of no more than eight runners. Tried over 1,800-2,000 meters, the distance suits. Key will be how Giovanni finds the larger gathering. Kohei Matsuyama, who has ridden all the colt’s starts and is expected up Saturday, breezed over the woodchip course at Ritto on Dec. 18 for a time of 81.2 seconds over six furlongs. According to assistant trainer Okubo, the colt “was calm and breathing easy when he came off the track. I think his heart and lungs have got strong. He’s mature for a 2-year-old and he’s steadily learned how to use his body better when racing.”

Jet Magnum: The Henry Barows-sired Jet Magnum has posted two wins and a seventh in his three starts, once every month since July. The seventh was attributable to heart troubles, not his racing ability. Also, a huge point in his favor is his most recent win in the Fuyo Stakes in late September, a race that is run over the same conditions as the Hopeful Stakes. Racing patiently in second position amid a slow pace, Jet Magnum stepped into the front 200 meters out and gutsily held off challenges to finish strongly 3/4 of a length in front. Following last week’s fast work up the hill course at Ritto and a time of 54 seconds over four furlongs, trainer Akio Adachi commented: “He never does more than 54-55 seconds over four furlongs on the uphill course, so this is normal. His experience at Nakayama is going to figure strongly.” In the saddle should be Yuji Tannai, who has ridden the colt’s last two starts. The 39-year-old Tannai is having his best year yet, both for most rides and most wins. He has notched 69 firsts from 888 rides this year and is gunning for his first Grade 1 victory.

Others of interest are:

Piko Chan Black debuted over 2,000 meters at Fukushima and won wire to wire by seven lengths. After that, he ran in the Ivy Stakes and raced in second position, but eventually lost to Masquerade Ball by a length and a half. The tighter turns of Nakayama should be a plus for him.
Yamanin Bouclier aced his debut over 1,800 meters at Kyoto. Then next out in the Kigiku Sho, he finished in second three lengths behind Museum Mile, who went on to run second in the Ashai Hai Futurity Stakes. A versatile runner with speed and Yutaka Take expected up again, he’s not to be overlooked.
Despite spooking in the straight in his debut at Tokyo, the front-running Amakihi recovered his composure and rallied to win. He is by the filly’s Triple Crown champion Apapane, and is half-sister to Shuka Sho winner Akaitorino Musume.