Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Data Analysis

The Grand Prix that caps off the racing year
The Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) brings together fan-voted runners and the year’s leading G1 performers. In 2017, Kitasan Black triumphed in the race, ending his career on a high note. Many will also remember that 2022 winner Equinox and 2023 winner Do Deuce continued racing in the following year and were both named JRA Horse of the Year. Let’s now analyze some trends in this race, which has produced countless dramatic moments across its storied history, based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on highly favored runners
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 17 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. Moreover, eight of the 10 winners were also backed as 3rd favorite or higher, so fancied runners have often secured the victory. At the same time, five runners that were backed as 6th favorite or lower have finished as runner-up, and two races have produced a massive Quinella payout. In other words, a sound approach would be to anchor bets around a leading favorite while spreading coverage to include longshots. [Table 1]

Runners proven in G1 races have the edge
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a JRA G1 turf race contested over a distance of 2,000m+. The only Top 3 finisher without such a record was 2018 winner Blast Onepiece, who had finished 4th in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) in his previous race, thereby achieving a Top 5 finish in a G1 race. In other words, it is reasonable to assume that horses likely to perform well in a race with a strong field like the Arima Kinen will have a solid record in G1 races. [Table 2]

Discount runners aged 6 or above
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that 3-year-olds achieved the highest success ratios, with success ratios declining as the runners’ age increases. Within the Top 3 finishers, 3-year-olds accounted for 10 runners, and 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds for 9 runners each, so the difference here was minimal. However, 6-year olds only produced two Top 3 finishers, marking a sharp drop, while runners aged 7 or above achieved zero Top 3 finishes. [Table 3]

Strong performances by runners coming from a domestic or overseas G1 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we find that 29 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a domestic or overseas G1 race last time out. Among these, runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Autumn) delivered performance of [3-2-1-12], and those coming from the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) performance of [2-1-3-10], with both groups achieving excellent Top 3 ratios above 30%. Conversely, runners coming from a G2 race (even including those that had won their previous race) delivered performance of [1-0-0-12], matching up poorly, so runners in this group should be discounted regardless of their previous finish. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Watch favoritism and finish in the previous race
The last 10 winners had all been backed as 3rd favorite or higher in their previous race and finished 5th or higher in that race. In addition, nine winners (excluding 2015 winner Gold Actor) had contested a domestic or overseas G1 race last time out, so the top win contenders are those that tick all of these boxes. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)