Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Eight Top 2 finishes among runners backed as 2nd favorite
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that race favorites did not achieve particularly strong success ratios, with a Win ratio of only 10% and a Top 2 ratio of only 30%. Conversely, runners backed as 2nd favorite delivered a Win ratio of 30% and a Top 2 ratio of 80% – both notably high. In addition, runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have also frequently finished in the Top 3, so it may be worth taking a chance on a longshot. [Table 1]

Performance among 4- to 6-year-olds closely matched
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we note that 6-year-olds enjoyed the highest Top 3 ratio. However, 4- to 6-year-olds can be rated on an equal footing as their Top 2 ratios are very similar, and there is no significant difference in their Win ratios. Horses aged 7 or above had lower success ratios, so they should be rated a notch lower. [Table 2]

Watch runners returning from overseas races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners coming from overseas races achieved high success ratios. In particular, runners coming through the Sprinters Stakes–Hong Kong Sprint route the previous autumn delivered performance of [3-0-1-4], with half finishing in the Top 3, so runners in this group warrant attention. In domestic prep races, the standout performers were those coming from the Silk Road Stakes. Meanwhile, runners coming from the Hankyu Hai or Ocean Stakes had somewhat lower success ratios. [Table 3]

Also check favoritism in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we find a significant gap in success ratios between runners that had been backed as 5th favorite or higher and those that had been backed as 6th favorite or lower. In particular, runners that had been backed as race favorites in their previous race achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 40.7%. [Table 4]

Target runners with a Top 3 finish in a prep race
The last 10 winners had all contested either graded races that serve as prep races for the Takamatsunomiya Kinen (Silk Road Stakes, Hankyu Hai, or Ocean Stakes), or the Hong Kong Sprint, last time out. In addition, eight of the 10 winners had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race. Although it is difficult to identify a clear favorite, this data can still serve as a useful pointer to the main contenders. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)