Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

Half of the Top 3 finishers were backed as 3rd favorite or higher
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 15 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. While there have been cases of less-fancied runners rising to the top, the leading favorites should be rated highly in line with their standing. [Table 1]

Runners starting in Brackets 4-7 have a slight advantage
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that 15 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 21 of the 30 Top 3 finishers started in Brackets 4-7. It therefore appears that runners starting in these Brackets tend to be more favorably positioned in the race. [Table 2]

Watch the previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we find that 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a G2 or G3 race last time out. By previous race, runners coming from the Kyodo News Hai (Tokinominoru Kinen) (G3) delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers (9 in total), followed by those coming from the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Deep Impact Kinen (Japanese 2000 Guineas Trial) (G2) (8 in total) and those coming from the Hopeful Stakes (G1) (3 in total). Runners coming from other races have all produced no more than 2 Top 3 finishers. In other words, we should carefully check runners that have contested the aforementioned races as lead-up races to the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). [Table 3]

Focus on the position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race, we note that 23 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had passed the 4th corner of their previous race in 2nd-5th position. We should therefore regard runners that have passed the 4th corner of their previous race in 2nd-5th position as strong contenders. [Table 4]

Narrow down selection by career starts and performance in the previous race
The last 10 winners all had 5 or fewer career starts and had contested a graded race in their previous race. Other shared features among the 10 winners were that they had either secured a victory in their previous race, or been beaten to 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.2s or less from the winner in that race. We should therefore focus on runners with comparatively short careers who achieved a top-place finish in a graded race last time out. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)