Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) - Data Analysis

Most Top 2 finishers have been backed as 4th favorite or higher
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that 17 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 20 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 4th favorite or higher. Basically, it would be fair to say that this is a race in which the top favorites perform strongly. [Table 1]

Little difference in performance between bracket positions
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in every bracket except Bracket 5 have all produced three or more Top 3 finishers. Aside from Bracket 5, there have been no major differences in results between the inside and outside brackets, so there seems to be little need to place too much importance on whether a runner is in an inside or outside bracket. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from the Satsuki Sho
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners coming from a G1 race accounted for 23 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. In addition, nearly all runners coming from a G1 race had previously contested the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), with the runners in this group delivering performance of [7-10-6-76] (Top 3 ratio of 23.2%). This year again, we should first take a look at the runners coming from the Satsuki Sho. [Table 3]

Runners that fared well last time out have the edge
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in their previous race, we find that 24 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had placed in the Top 3 last time out. We should therefore regard runners that finished in the top placings in their previous race as leading contenders. [Table 4]

Total career starts and lead-up races are decisive factors
The last six winners all had 5 or fewer career starts and were returning from layoffs of at least five weeks. Other shared features among the six winners were that they had either secured the victory or finished within 0.3 seconds of the winner in their previous race. We should therefore pay close attention to runners that match these characteristics. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)