Data Analysis for the “2015 Champions Cup (G1)”

Autumn dirt champion decider

This race was known as “Japan Cup Dirt” until 2013, but was renamed when the venue changed to the 1,800m dirt course at Chukyo last year. That inaugural Champions Cup saw Hokko Tarumae collect a long-awaited first G1 win. The focus this year must be on whether one of the form horses will deliver, or whether a rising star will turn the tables to snatch victory. This time, let’s analyze trends in this race from results over the last 10 years, including the Japan Cup Dirt years (2005–2007 on the 2,100m course at Tokyo and 2008–2013 over 1,800m at Hanshin).

Look out for dark horses

Checking performances by favoritism over the last 10 years, horses backed as “1st favorite” have won this race five times, amassing a top 3 ratio of 80.0% in the process. Compared to that, horses coming to this race as “2nd favorite” and “3rd favorite” have left much to be desired. On the other hand, runners with “6th and 7th favorite” tags have put up a good fight, culling two wins and three runner-up spots. Turning to performances by win odds, horses with odds in the “4.0-6.9”, “7.0-9.9” and “10.0-14.9” ranges have tended to struggle, while those with “15.0-19.9” have achieved good success ratios. So although the “1st favorite” looks a good bet in this race, we should also be on the lookout for dark horses. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Strong showing by 5-year-olds

In performances by age over the last 10 years, “5-year-olds” have the best success ratios. But in the top 3 ratio, specifically, there is no great difference between these and “3-year-olds”, “4-year-olds” and “6-year-olds”, though “7-year-olds and up” tend to have a harder time. Of the 30 top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 28 were 6-year-olds or lower, while only two “7-year-olds” have finished in the top 3 (Admire Subaru, 3rd in 2010, and 2013 runner-up Wonder Acute). And no “8-year-olds and up” have achieved a top 3 finish in the history of this race. [Table 3]

Check the recent race record

A look at recent race records shows that a horse with two previous starts since returning from the summer break has finished in the top 2 in each of the last six years. This year, too, we should certainly be checking the runners’ autumn records. Any horse coming to the Champions Cup as the 3rd outing of the autumn could well be worth a punt. [Table 4]

Look at the record up to 4 races back

Over the last 10 years, a horse finishing “2nd in top-class races in the last four outings” has made the top 2 of this race every year except 2007. Last year’s winner Hokko Tarumae had finished 2nd in the February Stakes three races back. So we should be looking for runners coming to this year’s race with that kind of record. [Table 5]

*When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is shown.

Seek out the winner!
Key point – record of wins on dirt over 2,100m…?

A statistic shared by each of the last three winners is that they had all “won a 2,100m dirt race within their last four outings”. Especially as 2,100m dirt races are not that numerous (including NAR racing as well as JRA), we might want to check the condition of races recently contested by this year’s runners. [Table 6]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)