February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring dirt champion decider
The February Stakes, which is the first G1 race of 2021, determines the spring dirt champion. 2019 winner Inti and 2016 winner Moanin were still contesting 3-win class races in the autumn of the year preceding their victory, but subsequently jumped straight to the top. Let’s now look at the data for the last 10 years to determine which runners are likely to dominate dirt racing in 2021.

Focus on previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that the winners had previously contested the Negishi Stakes, the Tokai Stakes, the Champions Cup, or an open-class race. Among runners in this group, those coming straight from the Champions Cup led the pack with a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%. In addition, runners that had previously contested the Kawasaki Kinen or the Tokyo Daishoten, both top-level NAR races, achieved a Top 3 ratio of 25% or above, but produced zero winners. These statistics may prove useful when making predictions. [Table 1]

Horses aged 7 and above tend to struggle
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that all winners were aged 4 to 6, that runners aged 7 and runners aged 8 or above both had Top 2 ratios under 10%, and that runners aged 8 or above also had a Top 3 ratio under 10%. In other words, it would seem wise to focus on runners aged 6 or below, which have the edge in terms of success ratios and number of Top 3 finishers. [Table 2]

Race favorites perform well
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we note that race favorites have achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 80.0%. Furthermore, these runners have consistently entered the Top 3 in the last seven consecutive years. In contrast, only five runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have entered the Top 3 in the last seven years, two of which were backed as 16th favorite in a 16-horse field. [Table 3]

Runners starting in outer brackets have a slight advantage
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of horse number, we find that runners starting in the middle to outer brackets delivered the strongest performance. The aforementioned two Top 3 finishers that were backed as 16th favorite also both started in the outer brackets: 2014 winner Copano Rickey (number 13) and 2020 runner-up K T Brave (number 15). Other examples of strong performances by runners starting in the outer brackets include 2012 winner Testa Matta (number 16, 7th favorite). This suggests it may be interesting to slightly raise our expectations of runners starting in the outer brackets. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Watch timing of, and finish in, previous race
Looking at performances by the last eight winners in terms of their first race of the year, we find that six had contested either the Tokai Stakes or the Negishi Stakes as their first race of the year and triumphed in that race. The remaining two winners contested the February Stakes as their first race of the year, and had both been beaten to 9th or lower in their last race of the previous year. When narrowing down our search for potential winners, we should keep an eye on runners that have previously won the Tokai Stakes or the Negishi Stakes, or whose last race took place in the previous year. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)