Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Ultimate short-distance race that helps crown the best sprinter
Since the JRA Award for Best Sprinter was established in 2023, the title has been awarded to Mama Cocha and Lugal in 2023 and 2024, respectively, both winners of the same-year Sprinters Stakes. In this race worthy of being called the battle for the sprint champion, let’s now look for some characteristics based on the results for the last 10 years.

Watch dark horses
While the winners from 2015 to 2021 were backed as 3rd favorite or higher, runners-up and third-place finishers included a total of five runners backed as 10th favorite or lower. Furthermore, poorly favored runners have won the race in recent years, with Gendarme securing the victory backed as 8th favorite in 2022, and Lugal backed as 9th favorite last year. We should therefore regard the Sprinters Stakes as a race where upsets are always a possibility. [Table 1]

Focus on runners coming from a JRA G1 race and Centaur Stakes winners
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners coming from a G1 race achieved high success ratios, so this is a group we should watch carefully. One example was last year’s winner Lugal, who had previously contested the Takamatsunomiya Kinen. Meanwhile, the nine Top 3 finishers coming from a G2 race had all previously contested the Centaur Stakes, and runners that had won that race delivered solid performance of [2-3-0-5]. In contrast, among runners coming from a G3 race, the bulk had previously contested the Keeneland Cup, but runners in this group delivered zero winners with performance of [0-1-5-37]. [Table 2]

Focus on runners starting in the inner brackets
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 22 started in Brackets 1-4. Runners in this group dominated the Top 3 four times, and also significantly outperformed those starting in Brackets 5-8 in terms of success ratios. When making our predictions, focusing on runners starting in the inner brackets would therefore seem to be the smart strategy. [Table 3]

Strong performance by four-year-olds in recent years
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that four-year-olds achieved the highest success ratios. In addition, 10 of the 11 four-year-olds that finished in the Top 3 contested the race from 2019 onward (the exception being Once in a Moon, who secured third place in the 2017 race). Since poorly favored runners have also found success in the race, such as Lugal last year and A Will a Way (third-place finish backed as 10th favorite) in 2020, keeping an eye on four-year-olds could pay off. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Similar position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race
The last 10 winners in the Sprinters Stakes had all been positioned 5th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, and nine had been positioned 5th-9th. Among runners that had been positioned 4th or higher, the highest finish was 2nd. When selecting win contenders, we can conclude the most promising candidates are runners that were positioned around mid-field or further back when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)