Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Contest in which top dirt horses vie for the champion title
The Champions Cup was launched under the name Japan Cup Dirt as a 2,100m dirt race held at Tokyo Racecourse in 2000. It was held at Hanshin Racecourse from 2008 to 2013. The race was renamed Champions Cup in 2014, and has since been held as a 1,800m dirt race at Chukyo Racecourse. Six of the seven winners since 2014 won the JRA Award for Best Dirt Horse in the same year. Let’s now analyze some trends in this highly anticipated race, which also serves as an indicator of contenders for the Best Dirt Horse title, based on data for the last seven years.

Dark horses bear watching
Looking at performances by runners over the last seven years in terms of favoritism, we find that highly favored runners have by no means produced low success ratios, and that runners backed as 1st to 3rd favorite have not collectively finished outside the Top 2 during our analysis period. That said, years such as 2019, in which the entire Top 3 was occupied by runners backed as 1st to 3rd favorite, have been rare. In the six years other than 2019, runners backed as 8th favorite or lower have consistently finished in the Top 3, so we should consider the possibility of a dark horse chasing the top places. [Table 1]

Check performance in JRA G1 races
The two G1 dirt races held by the JRA at present are the February Stakes and the Champions Cup. Both are run counter-clockwise. Looking at performances by runners over the last seven years in terms of experience of finishing in the Top 5 in these two races, we observe that 11 of the 21 Top 3 finishers had such experience. Winners from this group that defied low favoritism included 2015 winner Sambista (backed as 12th favorite), 2016 winner Sound True (backed as 6th favorite), and 2017 winner Gold Dream (backed as 8th favorite), so strong performance in counter-clockwise G1 dirt races is likely to be a key indicator. [Table 2]

Incidentally, 2018 winner Le Vent Se Leve and 2019 winner Chrysoberyl did not have prior experience of finishing in the Top 5 of the February Stakes or the Champions Cup. Both runners were 3 years old at the time of their victory and secured their first win in a JRA G1 dirt race. In other words, we should keep in mind that runners aged 4 and older without the aforementioned experience have not triumphed in the race. [Table 3]

Winners of G1 or other top-level dirt races show strength
If we also add NAR races to our analysis, more than 10 G1 or other top-level dirt races are currently held each year, and the last seven winners all had experience of winning such a race. Le Vent Se Leve and Chrysoberyl, which both triumphed in the Champions Cup as 3-year-olds, had also each won a NAR top-level dirt race, so it may be a good idea to check whether this year’s runners have such experience. [Table 4]

Check distance in previous race
Looking at performances by the 21 Top 3 finishers over the last seven years in terms of the previous race, we note that the group that had contested a dirt 1,600m race last time out was the largest, with seven runners. Among these, runners that had previously contested the Mile Championship Nambu Hai delivered noteworthy performance of [2-2-1-4] (Top 3 ratio of 55.6%). In 2016, when the JBC Classic was held as a dirt 2,100m race (same distance as this year) at Kawasaki Racecourse (Kanazawa Racecourse this year), the runners coming from this race (Sound True and Awardee) finished in the Top 2, so we should also check runners with this profile. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Many similarities in winners’ previous race
As illustrated in Table 4, the last seven winners had all previously won a dirt G1 or top-level dirt race. We should therefore make our initial selection of contenders based on their track record. Next, when analyzing the previous race of the winners, we find that they had all contested a NAR race last time out, that they had all been backed as 5th favorite or higher in that race, and that they had all finished in the Top 5 of that race. In other words, the lead-up race to the Champions Cup is a useful piece of information. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)