Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Data Analysis

Top curtain closer of the year with lineup of standout performers
The Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) is an iconic race that evokes the end of the year. This top contest brings together stellar runners that have turned in electrifying performances in turf races throughout the year. The race has been won by a long by line of era-defining runners such as Orfevre in 2013 and Kitasan Black in 2017, and it is not uncommon for runners to run the Arima Kinen as their last race before retiring. At the same time, the race has in some years served as a stage for the passing of the torch from one generation to another, as evidenced by Efforia’s victory last year. This year, the big question is which type of runner will rise to the top. Let’s now look for some trends in the race based on results over the last 10 years.

Strong performance by highly favored runners
Race favorites achieved consecutive victories in the Arima Kinen in 2020 (Chrono Genesis) and 2021 (Efforia), and have produced six winners over the last 10 years. Of the 30 Top 3 finishers, 24 were backed as 5th favorite or higher, while dark horses backed as 6th favorite or lower delivered at most one Top 3 finisher per year. When making our predictions, focusing on highly favored runners would therefore seem to be the smart strategy. [Table 1]

Watch runners that have won a G1 race in the same year
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 28 had previously achieved a Top 3 finish in a JRA G1 flat race. Runners without such a record struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 3.9%, and we should therefore lower our expectations of such runners. Among runners that had performed favorably in a G1 race, those that had won a JRA G1 flat race in the same year achieved excellent performance of [6-3-7-21] (Top 3 ratio of 43.2%). It is often said that the Arima Kinen concludes the racing year, so we should focus on runners that have won a G1 race this year. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from JRA G1 races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that 22 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a JRA G1 race last time out. By previous race, runners coming from the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) achieved a Top 3 ratio of 46.2%, signaling a strong aptitude for the race. Runners coming from the Japan Cup produced the highest number of Top 3 finishers (nine), but struggled in the last four years with performance of [0-0-1-18]. Meanwhile, runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Autumn) have produced consecutive winners in the last two years (Chrono Genesis in 2020 and Efforia in 2021). Moreover, the runner-up and third-place finisher last year had previously contested the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. In other words, it appears that runners on a relatively lenient racing schedule have performed well in recent years. [Table 3]

Battle between 3-year-olds and 5-year-olds
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that 3-year-olds achieved the highest Win, Top 2 and Top 3 ratios. Meanwhile 3-year-olds that had won a JRA G1 race in the same year delivered performance of [3-1-2-2] with a Top 3 ratio of 75.0%, and the three such runners that were backed as 1st favorite all won the race in dominant fashion. In other words, 3-year-old former G1 winners that are favored as race favorites over older horses appear to be highly reliable contenders. In addition, horses aged 6 or above performed poorly, producing only one third-place finisher. We should therefore focus on runners aged 3 to 5. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check finish and jockey in previous race
As shown in Table 4, the last 10 winners were all horses aged 5 or below. In addition, all winners had finished in the Top 4 of their previous race. This suggests that we should focus to a certain extent on age and finish in the previous race to find potential winners. Other data that can serve as a reference is the fact that eight of the last 10 winners were ridden by the same jockey as in the previous race. The victory went to such runners in the last seven consecutive years, so it would seem wise to focus on runners ridden by the same jockey. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)