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Dura Erede Wins by a Whisker in Hopeful Stakes

14th favorite Dura Erede claimed this year’s Hopeful Stakes nosing out his rival at the wire to outshine the other hopefuls in the year-end G1 test for two-year-old’s. Debuting in June this year and breaking his maiden in his third career start in August, the son of Duramente came into this race after putting in a fourth-place finish in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (1,800m) on November 19. The dark brown colt has given trainer Manabu Ikezoe and Kazakhstan native-jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev—who is riding in Japan under a short-term license for the first time—their first JRA-G1 victories.

Top Knife was sent up front as the race got underway and led the 18-horse field while Dura Erede pressed the pace from the outside in second all the way into the stretch. As the two dueled running up the hill, Top Knife briefly shook off the persistent Dura Erede and put close to a length lead between him 100 meters out. However, the stubborn Duramente colt found another gear and dug in with enormous force to overtake his rival at the wire, notching a photo-finish victory.

“It’s the same good feeling as when I won my first G1 race in Germany—I’m very happy. I couldn’t tell if we won, it was so close, but my colt broke well and it was the plan to chase the pace in second so everything went well. After two close seconds last weekend, I’m so happy that I came in first in the last G1 race of the year,” commented jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev in an interview after the race.

King’s Reign was off a bit slow, first sitting in fourth from the rear and then improved position in the backstretch up to a mid-pack seat before taking the widest route into the lane. Although with a lot of ground to cover, the Rulership colt stormed down the straight with the fastest closing speed and put away Phantom Thief at the wire while finishing 1-1/4 lengths behind the runner-up for third place.

Race favorite Mikki Cappuccino rushed up close to the pace after breaking sharply from the widest stall and stalked the two frontrunners in third. The Epiphaneia colt continued to chase the leaders in early stretch but failed to further threaten and was overtaken by Phantom Thief and then King’s Reign before the finishing line and was fifth.

Other Horses:
4th: (1) Phantom Thief—reserved in 7th on rails, switched paths for room, dug in with 2nd-tied fastest late speed but caught before wire
6th: (9) Seven Magician—sat in mid-field and 3-wide, closed in well while briefly dueling with King’s Reign 100m out
7th: (2) Hearts Concerto—saved ground in 10th, showed 2nd-tied fastest late speed, no match for winners
8th: (4) Serendipity—traveled in mid-pack, two-wide, bumped rival in early stretch, unable to reach contention
9th: (3) Sea Wizard—fourth on the rails, sustained bid until 100m out, nothing left thereafter
10th: (14) J Palms—settled 10th to 11th and 3-wide, struggled climbing hill, passed tired rivals
11th: (6) Gruner Green—sat in 6th, made rapid headway rounding final corner, showed little in stretch
12th: (13) Wurttemberg—bobbled at start, ran rails around 4th from rear, showed mild effort
13th: (7) Born in Grande—ran in 10th to 11th, near rear coming into lane, failed to respond
14th: (17) Jun Tsubamegaeshi—gradually made headway up to 7th in backstretch, drifted out in last turn, nothing left
15th: (5) Fate—traveled in 3rd, 5th entering lane, came up empty after early efforts
16th: (10) Gastrique—reserved 4th to 5th from rear, made bid turning into straight, never fired
17th: (12) Monde Plume—missed break, trailed near rear, was through early
18th: (16) Ska Paradise—followed in rear, never a factor

THE 39TH HOPEFUL STAKES (G1)
2-year-olds, Colts & Fillies, 2,000 meters (about 10 furlongs), turf, right-handed
Wednesday, December 28, 2022 Nakayama Racecourse         11th Race        Post time: 15:25
Total prize money: ¥ 152,200,000 (about US$ 1,324,000 <US$1=¥115>)
2-y-o: 55kg (about 121 lbs), 1 kg allowance for Fillies, 3 kg allowance for Southern Hemisphere-bred born in 2020
Course Record: 1:58.9                Race Record: 2:00.6 [Killer Ability (JPN, by Deep Impact), 2021]
Safety factor: 18 runners             Going: Good to Firm            Weather: Fine

Turnover for the Race alone: ¥ 16,441,505,500       Turnover for the Day: ¥ 25,367,462,700       Attendance: 15,669

Winner= 5 starts: 2 wins, 1 second / Added money: ¥ 71,274,000 / Career earnings: ¥ 84,974,000

* Hopeful Stakes (G1)

Established in 1984 under the name of Radio Tampa Hai Sansai Himba Stakes as a G3 race for two-year-old fillies run over 1,600 meters at Hanshin Racecourse, the race held in December has made various changes in its status over the years. The distance was extended to 2,000 meters while the runners were limited to colts and geldings in 1991, opened its doors once again to fillies and mares in 2000 and acquired international status in 2010. In 2014, the race was given the Hopeful Stakes name, upgraded to G2, excluded geldings and was shifted to a new venue, the Nakayama Racecourse where the first leg of the three-year-old Triple Crown, the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas, G1), is held over the same distance. In 2017, the race made its final elevation in grade and has become JRA’s 24th G1 flat race.
Even before becoming a G1 race, the Hopeful Stakes was highly regarded as the championship event for two- year-old middle-distance prospects aiming for the three-year-old classics and chosen as the main target in place of the traditional two-year-old G1 championships, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes and the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies run over 1,600 meters. As a result, the 2,000-meter race attracted many talented runners and subsequent G1 title holders such as 2010 Satsuki Sho and2011 Dubai World Cup (AW, 2,000m) winner Victoire Pisa (JPN, by Neo Universe), 2013 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, 3,000m) and 2014 Japan Cup (2,400m) victor Epiphaneia (JPN, by Symboli Kris S), 2017 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, 2,400m) champion Rey de Oro (JPN, by King Kamehameha), 2019 Satsuki Sho winner Saturnalia (JPN, by Lord Kanaloa) and 2020 Triple Crown victor Contrail (JPN, by Deep Impact).
Gastrique came off his victory in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (G2, 1,800m, Nov.19), with Hearts Concerto, Dura Erede and Fate following in third, fourth and fifth, respectively. The top three finishers of the Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3, 2,000m, Nov.26), Gruner Green, Top Knife and Wurttemberg in that order, were also among the field. Other key runners were Phantom Thief, Sea Wizard, King’s Reign, Seven Magician and Mikki Cappuccino, respective winners of the Nojigiku Stakes (Open Class, 2,000m, Sep.24), the Fuyo Stakes (Open Class, 2,000m, Oct.1), the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu (1 Win Class, 2,000m, Nov.6), the Kigiku Sho (1 Win Class, 2,000m, Nov.13) and the Habotan Sho (1 Win Class, 2,000m, Dec.3).