Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider of the autumn season that brings together top sprinters
In 2023, Mama Cocha caputered her first G1 victory in the Sprinters Stakes and also received the JRA Award for Best Sprinter, a title newly established in the same year. In addition, Mad Cool, who was beaten by a nose by Mama Cocha to 2nd in the same Sprinters Stakes, achieved his first G1 victory in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen this spring. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 1,200m turf race held at Niigata Racecourse in 2014.

Runners starting in the outer brackets are at a slight disadvantage
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 24 started in Brackets 1-5. Conversely, runners that started in Brackets 6-8 struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 9.7%. [Table 1]

In addition, three of the six runners that finished in the Top 3 despite starting in Brackets 6-8, had finished in the Top 2 of the Takamatsunomiya Kinen of the same year. Conversely, runners without such a record struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 5.3%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of runners starting in the outer brackets, unless they have finished in the Top 2 of the sprint champion decider of this year’s spring season. [Table 2]

Watch performance since the turn of the year
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 26 had experience of winning an open-class race held at Tokyo, Nakayama, Kyoto, Hanshin, or Chukyo Racecourse in the same year. Conversely, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 4.3%. If we limit our analysis to the five years since 2019, their performance was [0-0-0-41], with zero Top 3 finishers. We therefore need to discount runners with such a track record. [Table 3]

Focus on runners with 14 or fewer career starts, and runners that have won a same-year graded race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 14 had 14 or fewer career starts. Conversely, runners with 15 or more career starts achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 14.2%. [Table 4]

In addition, 13 of the 16 runners that finished in the Top 3 despite having 15 or more career starts, had experience of winning a JRA graded race in the same year. Runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 4.2%. If we limit our analysis to the five years since 2019, their performance was [0-0-0-32], with zero Top 3 finishers. In other words, we should assume runners with 15 or more career starts that have not dominated a graded race since the start of the year are unlikely to chase the top places. [Table 5]

Position in the previous race is a decisive factor
Of the 18 Top 3 finishers over the last six years, 14 had contested a domestic race last time out on a course other than the 1,000m straight turf course at Niigata Racecourse, and had been positioned 2nd-7th when passing the 4th corner in that race. Conversely, runners that had been positioned 1st achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 9.1%, and those that had been positioned 8th or lower achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 7.0%. We should therefore be skeptical of runners that were positioned 1st or 8th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Runners with more positives have the edge
The last six winners all started in Brackets 1-5. Other shared features among the six winners were that they had experience of winning an open-class race held at Tokyo, Nakayama, Kyoto, Hanshin, or Chukyo Racecourse in the same year, and that they had been positioned 5th-8th when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. We should therefore assume there is a relatively high probability that the race will be won by a runner that clears the conditions outlined in Table 1, Table 3, and Table 6. [Table 7]

(Masaya Ibuki)