Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Legendary race contested by runners that have exhilerated the spring G1 season
In the last two years, mares have dominated the Takarazuka Kinen with masterful performances. Lys Gracieux won the race by three lengths in 2019, and Chrono Genesis by six lengths in 2020. What’s more, both runners also triumphed in the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) held at the end of the same year. The question therefore is whether a filly/mare will again rise to the top in this year’s Takarazuka Kinen, a race that seems to have a strong correlation with the Grand Prix that concludes the racing year? Or, will a decisive colt/stallion rise up and take the crown? Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Fillies/mares in particular have fared well in recent years
As mentioned above, the last two Takarazuka Kinen races were won by mares (Lys Gracieux in 2019, and Chrono Genesis in 2020). Over the last 10 years, fillies/mares have similarly achieved a Top 3 ratio of 45.0%, and high success ratios overall. Marialite achieved a particularly memorable victory in 2016, and fillies/mares have delivered performance of [3-0-1-4] in the last five years, corresponding to a Win ratio of 37.5%. In addition, the three winners had all previously won a JRA G1 race. If any of this year’s fillies/mares have previously secured a victory in a G1 race, we should take a close look at them. [Table 1]

Strong showing by previous G1 winners
Considering the noteworthy performance by fillies/mares with previous victories in G1 races, we looked at runners with experience of winning a JRA or overseas G1 race over the last 10 years, and found that 21 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had experience of winning such a race. However, runners that had won a JRA or overseas G1 race in the same year delivered performance of [0-1-2-8], and surprisingly did not produce a single winner. We should keep this in mind when making predictions. [Table 2]

In addition, eight of the nine Top 3 finishers without experience of winning a G1 race had previously won a G2 race. The only runner without a G2 victory to perform well in the Takarazuka Kinen over the last 10 years was third-place finisher Noble Mars in 2018. This suggests we should sharply discount runners without experience of winning a G2 race. [Table 3]

Dark horses should not be overlooked
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we observe that race favorites achieved a Top 3 ratio of 60.0%, with more than half finishing in the Top 3. However, such runners have delivered performance of [0-2-0-4] since 2015, falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, 10 of the 18 Top 3 finishers since 2015 were backed as 6th favorite or lower, so dark horses have turned in notable performance in recent years. If we limit our analysis to runners backed as 10th favorite or lower, we find that all examples of strong performances by such runners came after 2015. In other words, we should compile our predictions while keeping in mind that upsets have been more common in recent years. [Table 4]

Focus on runners that have also contested a JRA G1 race last time out
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we note that 17 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested a JRA G1 race in their previous race. Five runners that had previously contested an overseas G1 race also finished in the Top 3. Conversely, runners coming from a JRA G2 or G3 race struggled somewhat, but six of the seven Top 3 finishers in this group were backed as sixth favorite or lower. In this sense, runners coming from G2 and G3 races offer some appeal, so it may be worth to consider them. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Conspicuous trend in performance by bracket number
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we note that runners starting in Bracket 8 have delivered performance of [7-0-2-13] (Win ratio of 31.8%). Such runners have consistently turned in favorable performance since 2013. With the exception of the 2018 race (won by Mikki Rocket), all races since 2013 have been won by runners starting in Bracket 8. Regardless of the number of runners appearing in the race, which varies year by year, we should focus on runners starting in Bracket 8. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)