Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Data Analysis

Two-year-old fillies champion decider to be held at Kyoto Racecourse this year
The Hanshin Juvenile Fillies brings together young fillies vying for the title of two-year-old fillies’ champion. Liberty Island, who won the race in 2022, dominated the fillies’ Triple Crown in 2023 with overwhelming strength. Similarly, 2020 winner Sodashi subsequently won the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), while 2016 winner Soul Stirring went on to triumph in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks). In other words, the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies is a must-watch race that provides important hints for three-year-old fillies races in the following year. This year’s race will be held at Kyoto Racecourse, but let’s now analyze some trends based on results over the last 10 years, during which the race was held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Focus on highly favored runners, but …
Five of the last 10 race favorites notched the win but the remaining five were beaten to 4th or lower, suggesting performance among such runners has been mixed. However, the last 10 winners were all backed as 5th favorite or higher, so we should select win contenders from highly favored runners. That said, there have also been many standout performances by dark horses (backed as 6th or lower) that have lifted bet payouts, so we should broaden the scope of our selection when picking candidates for runner-up and third-place finisher. For example, while 2022 race favorite Liberty Island lived up to expectations by securing the victory, the runner-up and third-place finisher in that race were both backed as 10th favorite or lower. [Table 1]   

Runners coming from a JRA graded race have enjoyed success  
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners coming from the Artemis Stakes, a major fillies-only prep race, have performed well. Runners that had finished in the Top 2 of that race delivered performance of [5-2-2-7], with over half enjoying success. Meanwhile, runners coming from the fillies-only graded Fantasy Stakes turned in lackluster performance on the whole, but runners that had finished 1st in that race achieved performance of [2-0-1-5], and should therefore not be overlooked. In recent years, fillies coming from a graded race contested alongside colts have also enjoyed notable success, with 2023 winner Ascoli Piceno coming from a victory in the Niigata Nisai Stakes, 2022 third-place finisher Doe Eyes (10th favorite) from a second-place finish in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes, and 2021 runner-up Lovely Your Eyes (8th favorite) from a third-place finish in the Keio Hai Nisai Stakes.[Table 2]

Check race record in terms of distance
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 26 had experience of winning a 1,600m+ turf race, and 20 runners in this group had “experience of winning a 1,600m turf race.” However, 2016 winner Soul Stirring, 2018 runner-up Chrono Genesis, and 2022 third-place finisher Doe Eyes had only contested 1,800m turf races prior to entering the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. We should therefore not overlook runners that have delivered a strong performance in a middle-distance race. [Table 3]

Furthermore, we should keep in mind that the four Top 3 finishers without experience of winning a 1,600m+ turf race had finished “in the Top 3 of a 1,400m graded turf race” last time out. [Table 4]

Consistent performance speaks volumes
The last 10 winners had consistently finished in the Top 3 of all their previous races. Runners with experience of being beaten to 4th or lower—even if only once—produced only two Top 3 finishers: 2015 runner-up Win Fabulous and 2020 third-place finisher Uberleben. Both these runners had only been beaten to 4th or lower once in a graded race. It would therefore seem advisable to discount runners who have been beaten to 4th or lower numerous times, and runners who have been beaten to 4th or lower in a non-graded race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Strong performance in an open-class race is essential
The last 10 winners all had two or three career starts and, with the exception of 2014 winner Shonan Adela, all had experience of finishing in the Top 2 of a graded race or triumphing in an open-class race. In other words, we should target runners with short careers that have already enjoyed success in graded or open-class races. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)