Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Autumn sprint decider with a history of upsets
Last year, the 9th favorite Solveig finished 3rd in this race. The year before, it was won by the 1st favorite Straight Girl, but the runner-up was 11th favorite and the 9th favorite came in 3rd. In fact, a runner backed as 8th favorite or lower has finished in the Top 3 for the last eight years in a row (including 2014, when the race was held at Niigata Racecourse). Last year, the pack suddenly bunched together on the home straight, leading to a frantic finish with a mere 0.5 seconds separating 1st from 15th. It seems we can be assured of another ferocious battle this year as the runners vie to be crowned autumn sprint champion. Now let's look at some data on this race from results over the last 10 meetings, i.e. the last 11 years except 2014, when it was held at Niigata.

Mainly 4- and 5-year-olds
Looking first at aggregate performances by age over the last 10 meetings, 4- and 5-year-olds have been most successful. The only 6-year-old to win during that time was Straight Girl in 2015, and both of the winners aged 7-plus were trained overseas. At the other end of the spectrum, the only 3-year-old to win was Aston Machan, racing to victory on a heavy course in 2007. In fact, Aston Machan is the only 3-year-old to finish in the Top 2 since 2000, when the race was moved to the final week of Nakayama's early autumn series. [Table 1]

Unusual stats in the performance by win odds
Turning next to performances by win odds over the 10 years in question, three horses have been backed by odds multiples of "1.9 or lower," but the only one to finish in the Top 3 was the 2013 winner Lord Kanaloa; the other two were both beaten to 4th or lower. Better performances have been achieved by runners with odds in the "2.0-4.9" bracket. Finally, all horses finishing 3rd during the period in question had odds of "10 or higher," and in two cases the odds were actually 100 or higher. [Table 2]

Also check the performance by bracket number
On checking performances by bracket number over the 10 years in question, nine of the ten winners turn out to have started in brackets 4 to 8, while seven of the ten 3rd-place finishers were in brackets 1 to 3. We should perhaps keep this in mind when making our selections. [Table 3]

Poor showing by runners coming straight from G1 races
Looking at performances in terms of the runners' previous race over the 10 years in question, a total of 21 horses had contested G1 races (including overseas races) last time out, but only three finished in the Top 3 here – Sakura Gospel (2nd in 2015, last race Yasuda Kinen), Kinshasa no Kiseki (2nd in 2010, Takamatsunomiya Kinen) and Mikki Isle (2nd in 2016, also Takamatsunomiya Kinen). On the other hand, about half of the Top 2 finishers had most recently contested the Centaur Stakes. Runners coming straight from the Kitakyushu Kinen and Keeneland Cup in the Summer Sprint Series have also performed well. [Table 4]

Better result with no jockey change
Of 20 Top 2 finishers over the 10 years in question, 19 had also been ridden by the same jockey last time out. The only exception was 2007 winner Aston Machan (after a jockey change from Yasunari Iwata to Eiji Nakadate). Runners finishing 3rd are equally divided between the two types, but horses ridden by a different jockey generally have a harder time here. [Table 5]

Look for horses with five or more starts this year
Over the 10 years in question, 10 runners coming to the Sprinters Stakes with "Five or more starts and at least one win that year" have finished in the Top 2. In the two years when there was no such Top 2 finisher, horses coming with almost the same record were the 2012 winner Lord Kanaloa ("4 starts, 1 win") and the 2015 runner-up and 11th favorite Sakura Gospel ("4 starts, 2 wins"). [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Three straight victories by runners with wins over 1,400m+ two races back
The last three winners of the Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse had also "Finished 1st in a race run over 1,400m or more two races back." Last year, there were only two runners answering this description; they duly finished 1st and 2nd. [Table 7]

(Yasunori Asano)