Yasuda Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring mile champion decider
The Yasuda Kinen is regarded as the spring mile champion decider for runners aged 3 and above. Looking at performances by runners in the last 10 years in terms of horse number, we find that runners entering the race with the numbers 10 or above produced seven winners and 17 Top 3 finishers, while those entering the race with the numbers nine or below produced three winners and 13 Top 3 finishers. In other words, runners with the numbers 10 or above have delivered better performance. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Runners coming from a win have achieved a slightly better Top 3 ratio
Looking at performances by finish in the previous race over the last 10 years, we find that runners that had won their previous race achieved the highest Top 3 ratio. However, a broad range of runners that had finished 1st to 6th or lower in their previous race all entered the Top 2, revealing no major pattern. While runners coming from a win undoubtedly have a slight edge, we should not be concerned with other finish-related factors. [Table 1]

Watch favoritism in previous race
Looking at runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we observe that runners that had been backed as 4th favorite or higher in their previous race achieved a Top 3 ratio of 27.5%. Conversely, runners that had been backed as 5th favorite or lower achieved a Top 3 ratio of 4.9%, so there is a significant difference. In addition, runners that had contested their previous race overseas achieved a Top 3 ratio of 26.3%, putting them on par with those backed as 4th favorite or higher. Among runners that have contested a domestic race in their previous race, it may be wise to discount those that were backed as 5th favorite or lower in that race. [Table 2]

Position when passing 4th corner in previous race also a key factor
Looking at runners (excluding those that had contested a NAR or overseas race last time out) over the last 10 years in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, we note that while there was not much difference between the different groups in terms of the number of Top 3 finishers, runners that were positioned 10th or lower when passing the 4th corner achieved the highest success ratios. In addition, runners that had contested a NAR or overseas race last time out achieved a Top 3 ratio of 25.0%, suggesting they should also not be overlooked. [Table 3]

Check race record in recent mile-long G1 turf races
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 20 had contested a 1,600m G1 turf race in their last three outings. In terms of success ratios, too, runners with the aforementioned experience outperformed those without such experience. When comparing the lead-up races of this year’s runners, we should focus on runners that have contested a mile-long G1 turf race in their last three outings. However, we need to discount runners with a highest finish of 10th or lower in such a race as this group has delivered performance of [0-0-0-10]. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Watch favoritism, age, and previous race
The six winners since 2018 were all backed as 3rd-9th favorite and 4 or 5 years old. In addition, four of the six runners had contested a G1 race in their previous race, and the two runners that did not meet this condition had contested the Yomiuri Milers Cup in their previous race or their last-but-one race. This year, we should again focus on these factors to narrow down likely win contenders. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)